Online First Quarterly Journal of Economics Online 18 Jun 2026Beliefs About the Economy are Excessively Sensitive to Household-Level Shocks: Evidence from Linked Survey and Administrative DataDmitry Taubinsky · Luigi Butera · Matteo Saccarola · Chen LianLinking the monthly Danish Consumer Expectations Survey to the Danish administrative registry, this paper shows that households' inflation forecasts move strongly and negatively with their own recent …