https://macropaperwarehouse.com/authors/alexander-m-jakobsen/Alexander M JakobsenHugo -- gohugo.ioen-ushttps://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/coarse-bayesian-updating/https://macropaperwarehouse.com/papers/coarse-bayesian-updating/<p>This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes&rsquo; rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals systematically deviate from standard Bayesian belief revision. The research question is: what is the minimal, tractable, axiomatically grounded generalization of Bayes&rsquo; rule that can accommodate heterogeneous non-Bayesian behaviors — including under-reaction, over-reaction, asymmetric updating, limited perception, and motivated reasoning — while remaining portable to standard economic settings?</p>