Learn every forthcoming macro paper, not just file it away — each one distilled into a faithful two-layer summary.

Noah Williams

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis — “periods of stability lead to …

Stephie Fried

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a macro heterogeneous-agent model to quantify the distributional welfare impacts of higher temperatures from climate change across income groups in the United …

Simon Johnson · Lukasz Rachel · Catherine Wolfram

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The …

Fatih Guvenen · Alisdair McKay · Conor Ryan

Layer 1: Overview Guvenen, McKay, and Ryan estimate a stochastic income process for US male workers that simultaneously matches five empirical regularities from Social Security Administration …

Fan Liang

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why small firms hold large quantities of liquid assets — cash and cash equivalents that earn low or negative real returns — even when external credit is available. …

Lukasz Rachel

Layer 1: Overview This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology (“econ-epi”) model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals …

Andrew Y. Chen · Francisco Palomino

Layer 1: Overview Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic …

Marc K Chan (University of Melbourne · Tax and Transfer Policy Institute); Cain Polidano (University of Melbourne · TTPI · ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families Over the LifeCourse); Ha Vu (Deakin University · TTPI); Roger Wilkins (University of Melbourne · TTPI · IZA); Andrew Carter (Australian Taxation Office); Hang To (Australian Taxation Office)

Layer 1: Overview Governments across ten-plus countries — including Australia, the United States, Germany, and New Zealand — have introduced matching schemes to encourage low- and middle-income …

Lena Gerling · Arzu Kibris

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because …

Peyman Firouzi Naeim · David W Johnston · Maryam Naghsh-Nejad

Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap …

Axel Gottfries

Layer 1: Overview This paper resolves a long-standing theoretical impasse in labor search models: how to model wage bargaining when workers search on the job (OJS) and the quit rate depends on the …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and …

Ana Fostel · John Geanakoplos · Gregory Phelan

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset …

Saki Bigio (University of California · Los Angeles) · Diego R Känzig (Northwestern University) · Pablo Sánchez (Northwestern University) · Conor Walsh (Columbia University)

Layer 1: Overview This paper quantifies the sources and distributional consequences of unexpected carbon price changes for European households using a money-metric welfare framework. The motivation is …

Mitali Das · Gita Gopinath · Helene Hall · Taehoon Kim · Jeremy C. Stein

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the …

Réka Juhász (University of British Columbia · CEPR · NBER) · Shogo Sakabe (AI Lab · CyberAgent · Japan) · David E. Weinstein (Columbia University · NBER · CEPR)

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of …

Antoine Bertheau · Rune Vejlin

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. On-the-job search models typically organize firms along a “job ladder” — a common ranking by workers of available jobs — but they …

Katharina Bergant · Prachi Mishra · Raghuram Rajan · Freddy Pinzon-Puerto

Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and …

Taeyoung Doh · Dongho Song · Shu-Kuei Yang

This paper proposes a text-based measure of monetary policy stance by modelling FOMC post-meeting statements as convex combinations of the staff-drafted dovish (“alternative A”) and …

Julien Acalin · Laurence Ball

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely …

Lucas Corrêa-Dias (São Paulo School of Economics-FGV) · Jordan J Norris (New York University Abu Dhabi) · Heitor S Pellegrina (University of Notre Dame)

Layer 1: Overview Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …

Stephen Ayerst · Loren Brandt · Diego Restuccia

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how institutional distortions to factor markets affect not only the static allocation of inputs across farms but also the dynamic choices — crop selection and …

Philipp Hochmuth (Oesterreichische Nationalbank); Per Krusell (Stockholm University; NBER; CEPR); Kurt Mitman (Stockholm University; CEPR; CEMFI; IZA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the EU’s Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters …

Alvaro Garcia-Marin · Santiago Justel · Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

This paper provides a theory and evidence for why firms with higher markups extend more trade credit, focusing on a financing cost channel that is distinct from existing competition-based …

Eugene Tan

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the illiquidity of entrepreneurial capital shapes investment dynamics and wealth inequality. The central question is whether entrepreneurship drives …

Ia Vardishvili

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. US cohorts of establishments born in recessions persistently employ fewer workers at entry and over their life cycle, yet are on average more …

Eric Jondeau · Gregory Levieuge · Jean-Guillaume Sahuc · Gauthier Vermandel

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether public subsidies to green-technology producers, financed by a carbon tax, can materially reduce the macroeconomic cost of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by …

Ruixue Jia · Xiao Ma · Victoria Wenxin Xie

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what …

Tristany Armangüé-Jubert · Tancredi Rapone · Alessandro Ruggieri

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive …

Alessandro Ferrari · Francisco Queirós

Layer 1: Overview Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can …

Robert P Lieli (Central European University · Austria); Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu (Universidad Nacional de Tucuman · Argentina)

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call …

Hiroshi Inokuma · Juan M. Sánchez

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the well-documented slowdown in labor-force growth affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a question that prior work on business dynamism had …

Rodrigo Adão · Costas Arkolakis · Federico Esposito

Layer 1: Overview How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share …

Hyejoon Im (Yeungnam University · South Korea) · John McLaren (University of Virginia · USA)

Layer 1: Overview Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called “race to the bottom” (RTB) hypothesis. The …

Nick Pretnar · Maria Feldman

Layer 1: Overview The paper investigates why the U.S. health-services sector has simultaneously experienced a tripling of relative prices since 1948 and a rise in the personal consumption expenditure …

Flavien Moreau · Ludovic Panon

Layer 1: Overview Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the …

S. Borağan Aruoba · Thomas Drechsel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate “shocks” — changes in interest rates that are not …

William A. Branch

Layer 1: Overview Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role …

Giorgio Chiovelli (Universidad de Montevideo); Stelios Michalopoulos (Brown University · CEPR · NBER); Elias Papaioannou (London Business School · CEPR); Tanner Regan (George Washington University)

Layer 1: Overview Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and …

Holger Breinlich · Elsa Leromain · Dennis Novy · Thomas Sampson

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How does import liberalization affect a country’s export performance and welfare? Economic theory (Graham 1923, Ethier 1982, Krugman 1984) …

Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle

Layer 1: Overview This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Ari Kutai · Rafi Melnick

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, …

Carlo Altavilla · Giacomo Carboni · Michele Lenza · Harald Uhlig

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether uncertainty in the interbank market — distinct from general macroeconomic uncertainty — raises the cost of bank credit to firms, and whether bank-specific …

Isabel Cairó · Avi Lipton

Layer 1: Overview This paper addresses two connected questions: why do Black workers face persistently higher and more volatile unemployment than white workers, and can the Federal Reserve’s …

Benjamin Bridgman · Berthold Herrendorf

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks why the U.S. labor share has declined over the postwar period, and whether rising markups or capital deepening (automation, falling capital prices) is the primary …

Christian Bredemeier (University of Wuppertal; IZA) · Babette Jansen (University of Antwerp) · Roland Winkler (University of Antwerp; Friedrich Schiller University Jena)

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal …

Andrea Ferrero · Maurizio Michael Habib · Livio Stracca · Fabrizio Venditti

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies …

Sebastian Ellingsen

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where …

Jianjun Miao · Zhouxiang Shen · Dongling Su

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how bank holdings of long-term government securities interact with interest-rate-driven monetary tightening to amplify macroeconomic downturns and generate banking …

Junichi Fujimoto · David Lagakos · Mitchell VanVuren

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether publicly funded (“free”) secondary schooling in developing countries raises GDP per capita. The question is policy-relevant because many …

Vincenzo De Lipsis (University of Southampton; Bartlett School · UCL); Matteo Deleidi (University of Bari Aldo Moro; IIPP · UCL); Mariana Mazzucato (IIPP · UCL); Paolo Agnolucci (Bartlett School · UCL; World Bank)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational …

Ariel Karlinsky · Moses Shayo

Layer 1: Overview Karlinsky and Shayo ask which governments manipulate public information, in which direction, and by how much — questions that are normally intractable because the ground truth is …

Giovanni Cespa · Xavier Vives

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks why market liquidity sometimes behaves in a stabilizing way (an illiquidity hike curbs liquidity demand and attracts liquidity …

Nezih Guner · Christopher Rauh · Gustavo Ventura

Layer 1: Overview Guner, Rauh, and Ventura document the scope, generosity, distributional impact, and time evolution of means-tested transfers to working-age US households, and provide parametric …

Barton H. Hamilton · Andrés Hincapié · Emma C. Kalish · Nicholas W. Papageorge

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard …

Christiaan van der Kwaak (University of Groningen)

Layer 1: Overview When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by …

Hassan Afrouzi · Marina Halac · Kenneth Rogoff · Pierre Yared

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The …

Salomon Garcia-Villegas

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, …

Tuo Chen · Chang-Tai Hsieh · Zheng (Michael) Song

Layer 1: Overview Chen, Hsieh, and Song study the use of unofficial non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by China during the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 and in the first year of the Phase 1 purchase …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler

Layer 1: Overview Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without …

Minsu Chang · Frank Schorfheide

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United …

Vahagn Jerbashian

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital …

Davin Chor · Edwin L.-C. Lai

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of endogenous growth driven by cumulative innovation, and uses it to characterize optimal patent policy — both for patent …

Thomas Douenne (University of Amsterdam); Albert Jan Hummel (University of Groningen); Marcelo Pedroni (Inter-American Development Bank; University of Amsterdam)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when …

Damien Capelle · Yang Liu

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …

Kee-Youn Kang · Zijian Wang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem …

Mohamad Adhami · Mark Bils · Charles I. Jones · Peter J. Klenow

Layer 1: Overview The paper asks how much economic progress looks different when one applies a total utilitarian welfare criterion — counting every person’s flow utility — rather than the …

Frédéric Docquier (LISER · Luxembourg) · Stefano Iandolo (Università degli Studi di Salerno) · Hillel Rapoport (Paris School of Economics · CEPII · LISER · CEPR) · Riccardo Turati (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona · IZA · RFBerlin) · Gonzague Vannoorenberghe (Université catholique de Louvain)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a …

Matthew Klepacz

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: …

Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal

Layer 1: Overview This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial …

Andrés Fernández · Daniel Guzman · Ruy Lama · Carlos Végh

Layer 1: Overview Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and …

Weizheng Lai · Lixin Colin Xu · Li Yang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in …

Ferdinando Monte · Charly Porcher · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Layer 1: Overview Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Debora Revoltella · Jan Svejnar · Christoph T. Weiss

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation …

Scott French · Tess M. Stafford

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large empirical literature uses micro data to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of labor supply, a parameter crucial for …

Martin Shu

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether worker self-selection, rather than slow technological progress, can explain the low measured labor productivity growth in the U.S. service sector — a …

Sushant Acharya · Jess Benhabib

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips …

Sjak Smulders · Sophie Zhou

Layer 1: Overview This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change …

Loren Brandt · Ruochen Dai · Gueorgui Kambourov · Kjetil Storesletten · Xiaobo Zhang

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies entrepreneurship and new firm creation in China through the lens of serial entrepreneurs (SEs) — individuals who establish more than one firm — contrasting them …

Heejeong Kim · Jung Hwan Kim

Layer 1: Overview U.S. outstanding student debt rose roughly 20-fold, from about $50 billion in 1985 to nearly $1 trillion in 2014 (about 7% of GDP), making it the second-largest form of household …

Sakai Ando · Tamon Asonuma · Prachi Mishra · Alexandre Sollaci

Layer 1: Overview Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the …

Esther Ann Bøler · Andreas Moxnes · Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe

Layer 1: Overview Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so …

Hans A. Holter · Serhiy Stepanchuk · Yicheng Wang

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the level and progressivity of personal income taxes shape entrepreneurial activity in the United States, contributing empirical evidence, theoretical …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, …

Katrine Jakobsen · Henrik Kleven · Jonas Kolsrud · Camille Landais · Mathilde Munoz

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Proposals to tax top wealth (e.g., Saez and Zucman, 2019) face a recurring objection in public debate: that the wealthy will emigrate en masse and, …

Xavier Cirera (World Bank) · Diego Comin (Dartmouth College) · Marcio Cruz (IFC · World Bank Group)

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since …

Russell Cooper · Ozgen Ozturk

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but …

Alessandra Fenizia (The George Washington University) · Nicholas Li (The George Washington University) · Luca Citino (Bank of Italy)

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. …

Corina Boar · Denis Gorea · Virgiliu Midrigan

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that …

Patrick J. Kennedy · Christine L. Dobridge · Paul Landefeld · Jacob Mortenson

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the firm- and worker-level effects of the corporate income tax cuts in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — the largest corporate tax cut in U.S. history — to …

Jean-Félix Brouillette

Layer 1: Overview Women accounted for only 3% of U.S. inventors in 1976 and still just 14% in 2023, a pace of convergence far slower than in law (3% to 49%) or medicine (6% to 46%) over the same …

Hideki Nakamura · Masakatsu Nakamura · Shota Moriwaki

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific …

Eunkyung Lee

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is …

Maximilian Konradt (Imperial College London); Giacomo Mangiante (Bank of Italy)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether …

Thomas Bourany (Columbia University · USA) · Jordan Rosenthal-Kay (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco · USA)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation …

Julián Costas-Fernández (University of Surrey · UK); José-Alberto Guerra (Universidad de los Andes · Colombia); Myra Mohnen (University of Ottawa and CEP LSE · Canada)

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but …

Donggyu Lee

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and …

Horng Chern Wong

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do some firms pay persistently higher wages for observably similar workers, and what role do firms’ product-market power …

Sarah Sander (University of Copenhagen)

Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers’ labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years …

Titan Alon · Damien Capelle · Kazushige Matsuda

Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes that university R&D is determined endogenously by competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education, and asks why universities …

Michael W. L. Elsby · Axel Gottfries · Pawel Krolikowski · Gary Solon

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual …

Maria Alsina-Pujols

Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the threat of forced climate migration — international displacement driven by climate-induced natural disasters — should alter optimal carbon taxation. The …

Drago Bergholt · Fabio Canova · Francesco Furlanetto · Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli · Pål Ulvedal

Layer 1: Overview The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a …

Jung Sakong

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the …

Melanie Wallskog (Duke University) · Nicholas Bloom (Stanford University) · Scott Ohlmacher (Federal Reserve Board) · Cristina Tello-Trillo (U.S. Census Bureau)

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how within-firm pay inequality relates to firm-level labor productivity, using a novel linkage of three confidential U.S. Census Bureau datasets covering …

Juan J Dolado · Etienne Lalé · Hélène Turon

Layer 1: Overview Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are …

BEHZAD DIBA · OLIVIER LOISEL

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the …

Yang Han · Jun Ma

This paper proposes a shadow rate no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model (SDTSM) with drifting trends to estimate the long-run trend of the real interest rate using yield curve data from the U.S., …

Christiaan van der Kwaak · Sweder van Wijnbergen

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic …

RYUICHIRO IZUMI · YANG LI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund …

Hiona Balfoussia · Harris Dellas · Dimitris Papageorgiou

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, …

Luís A.V. Catão · Jan Ditzen · Daniel Marcel Te Kaat

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks’ non-core funding, and whether exchange …

Marc Folch · Luca Mazzone

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Folch and Mazzone ask how undergraduate student debt shapes three intertwined post-college decisions — whether to pursue a post-bachelor (graduate) …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This …

Gene Ambrocio

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …

Antoine L. Noël · Hongfei Sun

Layer 1: Overview Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …

CHARLES M. KAHN · DAVID MARSHALL · ROBERT L. MCDONALD

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a “market-maker of last …

CECILIA DASSATTI · RODRIGO LLUBERAS · FRANCESC RODRIGUEZ-TOUS

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in “loan evergreening”—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss …

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo · Iván Payá

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of …

RODRIGO BARBONE GONZALEZ · JOÃO BARATA RIBEIRO BLANCO BARROSO · BERNARDUS FERDINANDUS NAZAR VAN DOORNIK

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — …

David Berger · Thomas Hasenzagl · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey · Eric A. Posner

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Antitrust review of mergers has historically focused almost entirely on harm to consumers (product-market monopoly), ignoring harm to workers …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies’ foreign debt …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …

Matthias Gnewuch · Donghai Zhang

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for …

Michael Smolyansky · Gustavo Suarez

Layer 1: Overview When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that …

MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …

Christoph Hambel · Frederick van der Ploeg

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate “transition risks” — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green …

TAKAO ASANO · YUSUKE OSAKI

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the “precautionary saving motive.” The …

THORSTEN BECK · PETER BEDNAREK · DANIEL TE KAAT · NATALJA VON WESTERNHAGEN

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system’s foreign-asset exposure plays in …

Jay Hyun · Ziho Park · Vladimir Smirnyagin

Layer 1: Overview This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, …

Sebastian Graves · Victoria Gregory · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas J. Sargent

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does endogenizing retirement (career-length) choice change the labor-supply and human-capital implications of the canonical Heckman, Lochner, …

Unknown

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given …

Pasqualina Arca · Gianfranco Atzeni · Luca G. Deidda

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing …

Masami Imai · Michiru Sawada

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends …

Carlo Altavilla · Refet S. Gürkaynak · Rogier Quaedvlieg

Layer 1: Overview This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The …

Justine Guillochon

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households’ one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, …

Ricardo Duque Gabriel

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Public procurement accounts for roughly one-third of government spending (12.6% of GDP and 30% of total government expenditures in OECD countries in …

Marius Clemens · Stefan Gebauer · Tobias König

Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European …

Filippo Pallotti · Gonzalo Paz-Pardo · Jiri Slacalek · Oreste Tristani · Giovanni L. Violante

Layer 1: Overview This paper measures the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the 2021-2023 inflation surge across households in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, …

Ilyana Kuziemko · Nicolas Longuet-Marx · Suresh Naidu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why have less-educated voters in the United States abandoned the Democratic Party over recent decades? The paper argues that the Democratic Party’s …

Ana Costa-Ramón · Michaela Slotwinski · Ursina Schaede · Anne Ardila Brenøe

This paper investigates whether information constraints — rather than fully forward-looking choices — contribute to mothers’ reduced labor supply after childbirth, a key driver of gender …

Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Pascal Kieren · Stefan Trautmann

Standard survey-based measurement of inflation expectations relies on density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified inflation bins; this method has been found to induce …

Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Giacomo Lanzani · Andrei Shleifer

Bordalo, Gennaioli, Lanzani, and Shleifer develop a cognitive theory of choice in which a decision maker’s attention to the features of options is determined by her categorization of the current …

Atif Mian · Ludwig Straub · Amir Sufi

This paper develops a tractable continuous-time model to study the fiscal sustainability of government deficits and the joint dynamics of public debt, with two main ingredients: an endogenous interest …

Volha Audzei · Ivan Sutóris

Layer 1: Overview Audzei and Sutóris ask whether inflation-targeting monetary policy affects households’ incentives to invest in energy conservation, and whether the standard central bank …

DOMINIK BODDIN · DANIEL MARCEL TE KAAT · CHANG MA · ALESSANDRO REBUCCI

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing …

Jorge Miranda-Pinto · Daniel Murphy · Kieran James Walsh · Eric R. Young

A common observation from account-level bank data is that low-income, low-liquidity households often use additional income to repay debt rather than consume, and that household-level consumption is …

Davide Viviano · Kaspar Wüthrich · Paul Niehaus

This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …

Marco Bassetto · David S Miller

Overview Research Question. Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to …

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Walker Ray · Dimitri Vayanos

Layer 1 — Core Argument The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic …

Daniel J Lewis · Karel Mertens

This paper develops a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that: (1) generalizes the Stock-Yogo (2005) and Sanderson-Windmeijer (2016) tests to be robust to …

Allen N. Berger · Onesime Epouhe · Raluca A. Roman

This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Benjamin Born · Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Georgi Kocharkov · Ralph Luetticke · Michael Weber

The paper studies Germany’s temporary 3 percentage-point VAT cut from July 1 to December 31, 2020 (standard rate 19%→16%, reduced rate 7%→5%), combining two causal identification strategies with …

Joel P. Flynn · George Nikolakoudis · Karthik A. Sastry

Research Question Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, …

Daria Finocchiaro · Philippe Weil

Research Question. Finocchiaro and Weil ask whether financial development necessarily promotes long-run economic growth, or whether congestion externalities in R&D markets can offset — and even …

Robert W. Hahn · Nathaniel Hendren · Robert D. Metcalfe · Ben Sprung-Keyser

This paper extends and applies the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) framework to evaluate the welfare consequences of 96 climate-related tax and spending policies in the United States. The MVPF …

Gaurav Khanna · Emir Murathanoglu · Caroline Theoharides · Dean Yang

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how persistent increases in international migrant income prospects affect long-run economic development in migrant-origin areas. The central …

Jonas Hjort · Xuan Li · Heather Sarsons

Layer 1 — Summary Many multinationals do not fully adjust wages to the local context of their foreign establishments; instead, they partially link the wages of foreign workers in a given position to …

Karl M. Aspelund · Anna Russo

This paper investigates the problem of additionality — the likelihood that a conservation action is marginal to (i.e., caused by) an incentive — in the United States Department of Agriculture’s …

Jess Benhabib · Feng Dong · Pengfei Wang · Zhenyang Xu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why do corporate defaults cluster in recurring episodes rather than occurring smoothly? The paper asks whether observable fundamental factors — firm …

Mathieu Pedemonte · Hiroshi Toma · Esteban Verdugo

Consumers’ inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each …

Marco Errico · Danial Lashkari

Errico and Lashkari address two intertwined problems in the measurement of aggregate price indices: how to account for quality change and variety entry/exit when the demand system is not CES, and how …

Boyan Jovanovic · Peter L. Rousseau

AI can improve decisions, raise firm productivity, and accelerate human capital growth through its effect on signal quality in problem-solving tasks, but the consequences are heterogeneous across the …

Andrea Matranga · Timur Natkhov

This paper investigates the origins of serfdom in early modern Russia, arguing that the institution consolidated primarily through political economy dynamics between the crown and a landholding …

Christian Bayer · Ralph Luetticke · M. Weiss · Yannik Winkelmann

This paper introduces the Distributional Endogenous Gridpoint Method (DEGM), a novel numerical technique for solving the distributional dynamics that arise in heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models. …

Eric Chyn · Diego Daruich

Overview Research question. How should governments design neighborhood-based policies to improve long-run outcomes for children, once one accounts for general equilibrium (GE) forces—endogenous rents, …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler · Simone Lenzu · Joris Tielens

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether …

Felipe Del Canto · John Grigsby · Eric Qian · Conor Walsh

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate …

Ping Wang · Tsz-Nga Wong

Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …

Stephan Lauermann · Asher Wolinsky

This paper develops an auction model that jointly incorporates three frictions pervading informal price-formation processes: (1) costly recruitment by the seller, (2) costly participation by bidders, …

Vitaly M. Bord · Agnes Kovacs · Patrick Moran

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should regulators restrict banks from proactively raising credit card limits using machine-learning algorithms, and if so, how? The paper asks: to what extent are …

Daron Acemoglu · Pascual Restrepo

Acemoglu and Restrepo examine the effects of automation in economies where labor market distortions cause some workers to earn rents—wages above their opportunity cost or outside option. The central …

Cooper Howes · Gregory Weitzner

Bank Information Production Over the Business Cycle Research Question Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask …

SANG RAE KIM

This paper studies when a bank is more effective as a supplier of privately produced money-like safe assets (repo, commercial paper), finding that a bank produces safer, more liquid assets when (1) …

David Rivero · Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal

Layer 1: Overview This paper demonstrates that the canonical efficiency result of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) — that banks using maturity transformation can decentralize the first-best risk-sharing …

Sydnee Caldwell · Ingrid Haegele · Jörg Heining

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How prevalent is individual wage bargaining in the labor market, what determines firms’ bargaining strategies, how do bargaining encounters unfold for …

Bruno Pellegrino · Enrico Spolaore · Romain Wacziarg

Overview Research Question. Why do observed international investment positions and cross-country differences in rates of return to capital fail to conform to a frictionless capital-market benchmark? …

Almut Balleer · Georg Duernecker · Susanne Forstner · Johannes Goensch

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers’ biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) …

Elliot Anenberg · Tess Scharlemann · Eileen van Straelen

Overview Research Question. Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing (“the cash-out refinance channel”), or does it …

Ariel T Burstein · Vasco M Carvalho · Basile Grassi

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question The paper asks how firm-level, sector-level, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation, and whether a single structural model can …

Anna Tompsett

This paper measures the causal effects of land transport infrastructure on economic activity, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the …

Minsu Chang · Hanbaek Lee

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment, specifically by incorporating firm-level investment decisions — a dimension absent from …

Gorkem Bostanci · Guillermo Ordoñez

The paper studies how the two roles of stock markets — revealing information about firms’ fundamentals (which guides capital allocation) and providing liquidity — interact, arguing that when …

George-Marios Angeletos · Chen Lian · Christian K. Wolf

The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing “stimulus checks” — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In …

Farid Farrokhi · Ahmad Lashkaripour

Overview Farrokhi and Lashkaripour (2025) study the interaction between trade policy and climate change. The central research question is whether and how countries can use trade policy — specifically …

Robert M. Anderson · Haosui Duanmu

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

Layer 1: Overview This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget …

Francesco Lippi · Elia Moracci

Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …

Matti Liski · François Salanie

This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three …

Hanfeng Chen · Maria Elena Filippin

The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …

BENJAMÍN GARCÍA · ARSENIOS SKAPERDAS

This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs’ testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? …

Raj Chetty · Will Dobbie · Benjamin Goldman · Sonya R Porter · Crystal S Yang

This paper documents sharp divergent trends in intergenerational economic mobility by race and class in the United States across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, and investigates the causal mechanisms …

Paola Manzini · Marco Mariotti · Levent Ülkü

Layer 1 — Overview This paper develops a unified choice-theoretic framework in which agents evaluate alternatives not in isolation but relative to their opportunity costs — the alternatives they …

Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Sandra Sequeira

This paper examines the impact of conflict-driven forced displacement on human capital accumulation using the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) as the empirical setting. During this war, over four …

Francesco Giovanardi · Matthias Kaldorf

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — …

Barbara Annicchiarico · Marco Carli · Francesca Diluiso

This paper embeds a carbon pricing sector into an extended DSGE model with a financial accelerator (E-DSGE) featuring heterogeneous firms, bank monitoring, and a borrowing-constraint amplification …

Abhay Aneja · Silvia Farina · Guo Xu

This paper asks whether exposure to greater female representation in the workplace can persistently reduce intergenerational gender gaps in labor market outcomes. The authors exploit the sudden, …

Alexander M Jakobsen

This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes’ rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals …

Takuo Sugaya · Alexander Wolitzky

This paper asks how a third-party intermediary (an “algorithm”) that observes market demand or costs superior to competing firms should optimally disclose that information to maximize the …

Ngoc-Sang Pham · Alexis Akira Toda

Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles can resolve the capital over-accumulation problem when the economy is …

J. Carter Braxton

This comment, written by J. Carter Braxton (University of Wisconsin), discusses the paper “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong (2025), which develops …

Miao Ben Zhang

This paper is a published comment by Miao Ben Zhang (USC Marshall School of Business) on Mihet, Rishabh, and Gomes (2025), “Is It AI or Data That Drives Market Power?” Zhang identifies …

Christoph Grosse-Steffen · Laura Pagenhardt · Malte Rieth

A central debate in fiscal policy is whether fiscal rules—numerical constraints on budget deficits or debt levels—impair a government’s ability to respond to adverse economic shocks, creating a …

Felipe Gonçalves · Elisa Jácome · Emily Weisburst

This paper studies how immigration enforcement affects public safety, asking two questions: (1) what is the effect of increased enforcement on criminal victimization, and (2) how does increased …

Marco Cosconati · Yi Xin · Fan Wu · Yizhou Jin

This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …

Ippei Fujiwara · Kiminori Matsuyama

Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …

Walter Beckert · Howard Smith · Yuya Takahashi

Research Question How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger …

Ilwoo Hwang · Kyungmin Kim · Raphael Boleslavsky

Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …

Fernando Alvarez · Katarína Borovičková · Robert Shimer

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of …

Kristine W. Hankins · Morteza Momeni · David Sovich

Overview Research Question. Do import tariffs affect consumer credit terms, and does focusing solely on goods prices understate tariff pass-through to consumers? The paper also asks whether vertical …

Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two …

Andreas Haupt · Zoë Hitzig

Haupt and Hitzig introduce a framework for comparing the privacy properties of different mechanism protocols. The core research question is: when a designer commits to implementing a social choice …

Sara G Castellanos · Diego Jiménez-Hernández · Aprajit Mahajan · Eduardo Alcaraz Prous · Enrique Seira

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks two related questions bearing on financial inclusion policy in developing countries: (1) How effective are credit card contract term changes — …

Frank Yang

This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …

Jonathan Payne · Bálint Szőke · George Hall · Thomas J Sargent

Overview This paper constructs a new dataset of US federal bond prices and uses it to estimate the full term structure of yields on gold-denominated US federal debt from 1791 to 1933 — the entire gold …

Myrto Kalouptsidi · Yuichi Kitamura · Lucas Lima · Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

Research Question. Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents’ utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England’s published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, …

Andrea Chiavari

This paper asks how rising returns to scale in production contributed to three concurrent U.S. secular trends since 1980: declining business dynamism, rising markups, and growing firm expenditures on …

Marek Ignaszak · Petr Sedláček

This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …

Fabian Gogolin · Ivan Lim · Francesco Vallascas

This paper studies what happens to local banking markets when a small bank suffers a successful cyberattack, using a stacked difference-in-differences design on 16 cyber incidents at small U.S. banks …

Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger

This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …

Gu Jin · Tao Zhu

This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …

Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wuthrich · Yinchu Zhu

Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Chen Qiu · Jörg Stoye

This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …

Taha Choukhmane

Overview Research question. Does automatic enrollment (auto-enrollment) in retirement savings plans increase lifetime wealth accumulation and welfare? The prior literature established large short-run …

Amanda Dahlstrand

This paper asks whether digital platforms can improve healthcare outcomes by enabling needs-based matching between patients and physicians unconstrained by geography. Amanda Dahlstrand studies digital …

Nikhil Agarwal · Paulo Somaini

Agarwal and Somaini study demand estimation in markets where consumers face latent choice constraints — situations where a consumer’s effective choice set is determined not only by her …

Alan J Auerbach · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Daniel Murphy

This paper estimates the distributional and social consequences of Department of Defense (DOD) contract spending using a city-level (CBSA) panel dataset spanning 2005–2016. The research question is …

Andreas Haller · Stefan Staubli · Josef Zweimüller

This paper develops a sufficient statistics framework for the welfare analysis of disability insurance (DI) policy reforms and applies it to two reform episodes in Austria. The framework derives …

Ingrid Huitfeldt · Victoria Marone · Daniel Waldinger

This paper studies the design of dynamic reassignment mechanisms—centralized systems that must not only provide good initial matches but also accommodate changes in agents’ preferences over …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from …

Francesco Ferrante · Nils Gornemann

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Ferrante and Gornemann study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in emerging market economies, focusing on a feature that prior …

Panle Jia Barwick · Siyu Chen · Chao Fu · Teng Li

This paper estimates the causal effects of mobile app usage on college students’ academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes, while separately identifying behavioral …

Asger L. Andersen · Kilian Huber · Niels Johannesen · Ludwig Straub · Emil Toft Vestergaard

This paper develops and implements a system of disaggregated economic accounts that breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows between small groups of consumers, producers, the …

Andreas Hornstein · Marios Karabarbounis · André Kurmann · Etienne Lalé · Lien Ta

This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …

Anastasiia Antonova · Gernot J. Müller

This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …

Amory Gethin

Layer 1 — Core Argument This paper constructs the first estimates of the aggregate and distributional effects of worldwide educational expansion since 1980 by developing a “distributional growth …

El Hadi Caoui · Andrew Steck

This paper investigates how buyer demand for supplier diversification shapes entry incentives and market structure, using the global undersea fiber-optic cable industry as the empirical setting. The …

Raj Chetty · David J Deming · John N Friedman

This paper studies why children from high-income families are more likely to attend Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Chicago — 12 colleges total) and whether attending these …

Daniel L. Greenwald · Adam Guren

Overview Research Question. To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from …

Supreet Kaur · Sendhil Mullainathan · Suanna Oh · Frank Schilbach

Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive? Research Question The paper tests whether financial concerns distract workers sufficiently to meaningfully reduce their productivity, and whether …

Alec Brandon · Paul J Ferraro · John A List · Robert D Metcalfe · Michael K Price · Florian Rundhammer

This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …

Lee K. Davison · Carlos D. Ramirez

Overview Research question. Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies …

Michael McLeay · Silvana Tenreyro

Layer 1 — Summary An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Jonathon Hazell · Bledi Taska

Layer 1 — Summary Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at …

Giacomo Lanzani

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …

Matthew Leisten · Nicholas Vreugdenhil

This paper evaluates the efficiency of linked environmental regulation, a targeting mechanism whereby inspectors who discover violations at one plant can increase enforcement pressure on other plants …

Veronica Backer-Peral · Jonathon Hazell · Atif Mian

Each month a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more, creating thousands of natural experiments in which the same property’s rent and capital value are revealed …

Cynthia L Doniger

Overview Research question. This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers’ educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare …

John Sturm Becko · André Sztutman

Overview Research Question. Can income tax schedules be justified as utilitarian-optimal without adopting extreme normative assumptions about how household welfare should be measured? The paper …

Mohammed Abdellaoui · Philippe Colo · Brian Hill

Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …

Alexandr Kopytov · Bineet Mishra · Kristoffer Nimark · Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel

This paper studies how firms’ optimal technique choices under productivity uncertainty endogenously shape the structure of production networks and aggregate macroeconomic outcomes. Each sector …

Gautam Gowrisankaran · Ashley Langer · Mar Reguant

This paper asks how rate-of-return (RoR) regulation in U.S. electricity markets affects the speed and efficiency of energy transitions, specifically the transition from coal to combined-cycle natural …

Ali Almelhem · Murat Iyigun · Austin Kennedy · Jared Rubin

This paper tests Joel Mokyr’s claim that Britain’s industrialization was preceded and enabled by a cultural shift — specifically, that Enlightenment ideals produced a …

Thomas R Covert · Ryan Kellogg

Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to “keep carbon in the ground” by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical …

Diego Gentile Passaro · Fuhito Kojima · Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies the labor market effects of “Equal Pay for Similar Work” (EPSW) policies — laws that require firms to pay equal wages to workers of …

Christoph Wegener · Robinson Kruse-Becher · Tony Klein

This paper tests whether the sharp rise in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) allowance prices from 2018 onward was driven by a rational bubble. The methodological contribution is to modify the Fama …

Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in …

Ralph S.J. Koijen · Motohiro Yogo

The paper develops an asset demand system to analyze, jointly and across all countries, how international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, short-term rates, long-term yields, and equity …

Zhengyang Jiang · Hanno Lustig · Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh · Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Layer 1: Overview This paper studies three centuries of U.K. fiscal history to understand the fiscal implications of safe asset supplier status — what the authors call “exorbitant …

Ming Zeng · Guihai Zhao

Overview Research Question. What drives the joint historical dynamics of the term structure of equity yields and nominal bond yields — and can a single unified equilibrium model explain the …

Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks whether an explicit, global, closed-form solution exists for the consumption function in the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing …

Sergio Correia · Stephan Luck · Emil Verner

Correia, Luck, and Verner ask a foundational question in banking: why do banks fail? Specifically, they seek to adjudicate between two theoretical views — the solvency view (failures caused by …

Renato Faccini · Seungcheol Lee · Ralph Luetticke · Morten O. Ravn · Tobias Renkin

Overview Research Question. How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption …

Jeffrey Chiang · Reka Zoch

This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach to measuring the aggregate demand effects of financial intermediation disturbances — shocks to the ability of financial intermediaries to supply …

Kirstin Hubrich · Yves S. Schüler · Daniel Waggoner

This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …

Naoki Aizawa · Corina Mommaerts · Stephanie Rennane

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies (1) how firm accommodation decisions respond to financial incentives in the context of workplace disability under workers’ compensation, …

Richard Audoly

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do …

Galina Vereshchagina

This paper quantifies how idiosyncratic firm-level risk affects aggregate output, TFP, and firm life-cycle growth in an environment where firm productivity evolves endogenously through risky …

Wenhao Li · Ye Li

Crises have cleansing effects—low-quality firms face greater financial shortfalls and invest less than high-quality firms—but public credit support dampens these effects by reducing financing cost …

Emmanuel Dhyne · Ayumu Ken Kikkawa · Toshiaki Komatsu · Magne Mogstad · Felix Tintelnot

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks three related questions in the context of Belgium, a small open economy: (1) What do firms’ responses to demand shocks reveal about their …

Alessandro Moro · Valerio Nispi Landi

Moro and Nispi Landi develop FraNK, a multi-country New Keynesian model designed to study geoeconomic fragmentation — defined, following Aiyar et al. (2023), as a policy-driven reversal of economic …

Tan Gan · Nicholas Wu

This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …

Emanuele Ciola · Gabriele Tedeschi

Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the endogenous structure of credit, deposit, and interbank networks shapes business cycle fluctuations and large financial crises in the U.S. economy. …

Markus Hertrich · Daniel Nathan

This paper uses confidential daily data on the Bank of Israel’s (BOI) foreign exchange purchase program in the USD/Israeli new shekel (ILS) spot market from 2013 to 2019 to study how FX …

Nava Ashraf · Maxim Bakhtin · Erica Field · Alessandra Voena · Roberta Ziparo

This paper investigates whether information asymmetries within households about maternal health risk can explain persistent spousal disagreement over fertility in a high-fertility, …

Eduardo Azevedo · Jonathan Beauchamp · Richard Karlsson Linnér

This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of …

N. Meltem Daysal · Hui Ding · Maya Rossin-Slater · Hannes Schwandt

This paper studies the short- and long-term consequences of intra-household respiratory disease transmission from older to younger siblings in Danish families. The central research questions are: (1) …

Amory Gethin · Emmanuel Saez

Drawing on about 5,000 labor force and household surveys from 160 countries that cover 97% of the world’s population, this paper builds a new global database of hours worked and shows that hours …

Timothy Besley · Christopher Dann · Sacha Dray

This paper investigates whether individuals who have experienced stronger GDP growth over their lifetimes are more likely to trust their national government. The authors — Besley, Dann, and Dray — …

Elena Capatina · Michael Keane

Capatina and Keane build and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings for U.S. men that incorporates health shocks, endogenous human capital accumulation via learning-by-doing, …

Daniel Barth · R. Jay Kahn

The U.S. Treasury market is the deepest and most liquid fixed-income market in the world, yet in March 2020 it experienced unprecedented dysfunction—widening bid-ask spreads, skyrocketing repo rates, …

EMMANUEL DE VEIRMAN · JASPER DE JONG

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The …

Karam Jo · Seula Kim

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Jo and Kim ask two related questions: (1) How do firms use different types of innovation when learning others’ technology takes time? (2) How does this …

Andrii Parkhomenko

This paper asks why job polarization and income inequality are higher in large U.S. cities, and proposes a novel housing-market mechanism that operates independently of — but interacts with — the …

Kristian S. Blickle · Sarah N. Hamerling · Donald P. Morgan

Using FEMA disaster declarations matched to SHELDUS property-damage estimates and Call Report data for 1995–2018, this paper finds that weather disasters — even at their most severe — have had modest …

Rodney J. Garratt · Zhentong Lu · Phoebe Tian

This paper uses detailed transaction-level data from Canada’s new high-value payment system (HVPS) to show how participants save liquidity by strategically exploiting the gridlock resolution …

Carlos Arteta · Steven Kamin · Franz U. Ruch

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …

Ben Weidmann · Joseph Vecci · Farah Said · Sonia Bhalotra · Achyuta Adhvaryu · Anant Nyshadham · Jorge Tamayo · David Deming

This paper develops a novel experimental method to identify the causal contribution of managers to team performance, and uses it to evaluate which characteristics predict managerial effectiveness and …

Elliott Ash · Daniel L Chen · Suresh Naidu

This paper quantifies the effect of the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges — an intensive two-week economics training program run by the Law and Economics Center from 1976 to 1998 — on the …

Wooyong Lee

This paper studies linear panel data models where regression coefficients are individual-specific (random coefficients) and regressors may be predetermined — that is, sequentially exogenous rather …

Aprajit Mahajan · Christian Michel · Alessandro Tarozzi

This paper addresses two related problems: the formal identification of time-inconsistent preferences in dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneous types, and the structural …

Hengjie Ai · Ravi Bansal · Hongye Guo · Amir Yaron

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a revealed-preference theory that uses asset-market data to identify whether investors have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty (PER), a property of …

Jorge García-Hombrados · Marcel Jansen · Angel Martínez · Berkay Özcan · Pedro Rey-Biel · Antonio Roldán-Monés

This paper investigates how the ideological alignment between knowledge-disseminating institutions and policymakers affects the adoption of evidence-based policies. The core research question is …

Aimé Bierdel · Andres Drenik · Juan Herreño · Pablo Ottonello

The paper develops a quantitative capital-accumulation model in which capital trades in illiquid markets with asymmetric information — sellers know the quality of their capital but buyers do not. It …

Sebastian Doerr · Thomas Drechsel · Donggyu Lee

The paper establishes a causal link from rising top income shares to reduced net job creation at small firms, working through a bank funding channel rooted in non-homothetic household portfolio …

Xincheng Qiu · Nicoló Russo

The paper provides the most comprehensive cross-country empirical characterisation of effective income tax functions to date, estimating the two-parameter log-linear tax function — pioneered by …

Sergio Villalvazo

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher’s (1933) debt-deflation mechanism as it operates during Sudden Stop crises — episodes …

Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in …

Joaquin Blaum · Federico Esposito · Sebastian Heise

Blaum, Esposito, and Heise study how supply chain risk — specifically, the risk of unexpected shipping delays caused by ocean weather conditions — affects U.S. manufacturing firms’ import …

Paul H S Kim · Anran Li

Kim and Li study how publicly provided reinsurance affects insurer behavior and market outcomes in health insurance markets where firms face substantial cost uncertainty. The central question is …

Kai Gehring · Paul Schaudt

This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence that Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) — a remote-sensing-triggered, automated payout scheme for pastoralists — substantially reduces …

Esther Duflo · Pascaline Dupas · Elizabeth Spelke · Mark Walsh

This paper provides experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in rural …

Mauricio Barbosa-Alves · Javier Bianchi · César Sosa-Padilla

The paper extends the Cole-Kehoe (2000) sovereign rollover crisis model to include international reserves and derives the joint optimal management of sovereign debt and reserves in a small open …

Fabio Ghironi · Daisoon Kim · Galip Kemal Ozhan

Sanctions are increasingly used as an instrument of economic statecraft, yet their macroeconomic consequences—especially the transitional dynamics and their effects on business cycles—are poorly …

Mathilde Muñoz

Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether differences in labor market regulations — specifically payroll taxes and minimum wages — shape countries’ comparative advantage in the …

Marianne Bertrand · Matilde Bombardini · Raymond Fisman · Francesco Trebbi · Eyub Yegen

This paper investigates whether institutional investors influence the political activities of their portfolio firms, using political action committee (PAC) giving as a window into the broader question …

Bruce E Hansen

Hansen (2025) makes a theoretical case for replacing the conventional cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) and heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors with a specific jackknife variance …

Guillermo A. Calvo · Andrés Velasco

Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies …

Saleem Bahaj · Ricardo Reis

This paper asks how a currency achieves international status — moving from zero to positive cross-border use — and whether deliberate central bank policy can accelerate that transition. The authors …

Christoph Albert · Albrecht Glitz · Joan Llull

Labor Market Competition and the Assimilation of Immigrants Research Question Why have immigrant-native wage gaps widened substantially across arrival cohorts in the United States since the 1960s, and …

Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See

Overview Research question. The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly …

Daniel Lewis · Davide Melcangi · Laura Pilossoph

Lewis, Melcangi, and Pilossoph estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) rebate payments, deploying Gaussian …

Chun-Che Chi

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt — specifically, the degree to which a borrowing country’s external debt is concentrated among a …

Abu Siddique · Michael Vlassopoulos · Yves Zenou

This paper investigates whether virtual contact — exposure to an outgroup through a documentary film — can promote interethnic harmony, and whether targeting network-central individuals amplifies …

Laurent Gobillon · Thierry Magnac · Sebastien Roux

Layer 1 – Overview Research Question This paper asks how wage inequalities build up over the life cycle when individual wage trajectories are plagued by interruptions in private-sector …

Jonathan Créchet · Etienne Lalé · Linas Tarasonis

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks: what are the sources of cross-country differences in aggregate employment across European economies, and which types of worker flows — between …

Alexander W. Cappelen · Shachar Kariv · Erik Ø. Sørensen · Bertil Tungodden · William R. Zame

This paper asks whether an individual’s attitude toward risk in the personal domain (choices affecting only oneself) can be linked to that same individual’s attitude toward risk in the …

Javier Bianchi · Louphou Coulibaly

The paper develops a tractable open-economy New Keynesian model with nominal rigidities and an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) to study how monetary policy and macroprudential policy …

Amy Finkelstein · Matthew J Notowidigdo · Frank Schilbach · Jonathan Zhang

Overview Research Question. Does the Great Recession reduce or increase mortality, and what are the welfare implications of incorporating recession-induced mortality changes into standard …

Ke-Li Xu

This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …

Alessia De Stefani · Rui C. Mano

This paper uses instrumental-variable local projections (IV-LP) on an unbalanced panel of up to 35 countries over approximately two decades to establish two interconnected findings about fixed-rate …

Maximilian Grimm · Òscar Jordà · Moritz Schularick · Alan M. Taylor

This paper provides the first long-run causal evidence that a persistently loose stance of monetary policy — defined as extended periods of low interest rates relative to the neutral rate — …

Virginia Minni

This paper asks why managers matter for firm performance, and specifically whether managers improve productivity by matching workers to better-suited jobs inside firms rather than through supervision, …

Renjie Bao · Jan De Loecker · Jan Eeckhout

This paper asks whether managers are paid for market power. Bao, De Loecker, and Eeckhout build a general equilibrium model in which firms compete oligopolistically in goods markets (following Atkeson …

Daniel Björkegren · Joshua E. Blumenstock · Samsun Knight

This paper addresses the problem of algorithmic manipulation: when consequential decisions are encoded in machine learning algorithms, individuals strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired …

KOZO UEDA

Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten …

Jack Mountjoy

This paper asks whether enrolling in an American public university generates positive net returns for marginal students — those who barely qualify for admission — and whether those returns justify …

MIRKO ABBRITTI · SEBASTIAN WEBER

This paper develops a two-country currency union DSGE model with endogenous TFP growth and product and labor market frictions to assess how cross-country differences in market regulation affect …

Matthew Elliott · Andrea Galeotti · Andrew Koh · Wenhao Li

This paper asks what market outcomes an information designer — modeled as an internet platform that knows consumers’ preferences — can achieve by choosing what information to disclose to …

Niko Jaakkola · Florian Wagener

This paper by Jaakkola and Wagener addresses a long-standing open problem in the theory of differential games: how to make Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) well-defined when best-response policy …

Eric Anderson · Sergio Rebelo · Arlene Wong

Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …

Guido Menzio

What this paper finds — and why it matters Across macroeconomics, market power is almost always modelled with the Dixit–Stiglitz (1977) monopolistic-competition framework, in which a seller’s …

Alberto Bisin · Giulia Tura

Bisin and Tura study the cultural integration of immigrants in Italy by estimating a structural model of marital matching embedded with intra-household decisions — fertility, socialization of …

Hadi Elzayn · Evelyn Smith · Thomas Hertz · Cameron Guage · Arun Ramesh · Robin Fisher · Daniel E Ho · Jacob Goldin

Overview Research Question. Do Black taxpayers face higher IRS audit rates than non-Black taxpayers, despite race-blind audit selection? And if so, why — and what would mitigation look like? Data and …

Vivek Bhattacharya · Gastón Illanes · David Stillerman

This paper by Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman makes two contributions to the debate over US antitrust enforcement stringency. First, it documents the price, quantity, and assortment effects of a …

Jacob D Orchard · Valerie A Ramey · Johannes F Wieland

Layer 1 — Overview Research question. Do the high marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) estimated in the leading household studies of the 2008 U.S. tax rebates—particularly Parker et al. (2013), …

David Berger · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey

Overview Research question. Can minimum wages improve welfare through efficiency — by correcting monopsony-driven under-employment — and, if so, by how much? What is the optimal minimum wage, and how …

Kelli Marquardt

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of ADHD diagnosis to decompose the mechanisms driving the observed 2.3:1 male-to-female diagnostic difference in the United States. The research …

JULIO L. ORTIZ

Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …

Maximilian Schröder

This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …

GEORGE J. BRATSIOTIS · KASUN D. PATHIRAGE

This paper introduces a four-agent estimated New Keynesian DSGE model—comprising banked simple households, underbanked simple households, firm owners, and bank owners—to examine agent-specific and …

Luca Fornaro · Federica Romei

In a multicountry model with nominal wage rigidities, two sectors (tradable with convex supply, nontradable with flat supply), and free capital mobility, the paper studies optimal monetary policy …

Frederic Boissay · Fabrice Collard · Jordi Gali · Cristina Manea

This paper asks whether a central bank should deviate from strict inflation targeting (SIT) to promote financial stability, studying the question in a textbook New Keynesian model augmented with …

Cristina Arellano · Yan Bai · Gabriel Mihalache

Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a New Keynesian small open economy model with endogenous sovereign default — the NK-Default framework — and uses it to study the interplay between monetary policy …

Sandra Daudignon · Oreste Tristani

This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …

Zhesheng Qiu · Yicheng Wang · Le Xu · Francesco Zanetti

This paper studies the design of monetary policy in a multi-sector small open economy with domestic input-output linkages and cross-border production networks, under nominal price rigidities in …

Luis G. Hernández-Román

This paper employs a proxy structural VAR model to examine the effects of global supply chain (GSC) shocks on U.S. macroeconomic variables and the Federal Reserve’s historical response, and …