Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis — “periods of stability lead to …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks what the optimal response of an exhaustible-resource producer is to sanctions in the form of a price cap, and how a sanctioning coalition should set the cap. The …
Layer 1: Overview Guvenen, McKay, and Ryan estimate a stochastic income process for US male workers that simultaneously matches five empirical regularities from Social Security Administration …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why small firms hold large quantities of liquid assets — cash and cash equivalents that earn low or negative real returns — even when external credit is available. …
Layer 1: Overview This paper builds a tractable, fully analytical version of the workhorse macro-epidemiology (“econ-epi”) model and uses it to characterize how susceptible individuals …
Layer 1: Overview Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because …
Layer 1: Overview This paper resolves a long-standing theoretical impasse in labor search models: how to model wage bargaining when workers search on the job (OJS) and the quit rate depends on the …
Layer 1: Overview The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset …
Réka Juhász (University of British Columbia · CEPR · NBER) · Shogo Sakabe (AI Lab · CyberAgent · Japan) · David E. Weinstein (Columbia University · NBER · CEPR)
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. On-the-job search models typically organize firms along a “job ladder” — a common ranking by workers of available jobs — but they …
Layer 1: Overview This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely …
Layer 1: Overview Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) …
Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how the illiquidity of entrepreneurial capital shapes investment dynamics and wealth inequality. The central question is whether entrepreneurship drives …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. US cohorts of establishments born in recessions persistently employ fewer workers at entry and over their life cycle, yet are on average more …
Layer 1: Overview This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive …
Layer 1: Overview Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the well-documented slowdown in labor-force growth affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a question that prior work on business dynamism had …
Layer 1: Overview How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share …
Layer 1: Overview Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate “shocks” — changes in interest rates that are not …
Layer 1: Overview Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role …
Holger Breinlich · Elsa Leromain · Dennis Novy · Thomas Sampson
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How does import liberalization affect a country’s export performance and welfare? Economic theory (Graham 1923, Ethier 1982, Krugman 1984) …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, …
Layer 1: Overview This paper addresses two connected questions: why do Black workers face persistently higher and more volatile unemployment than white workers, and can the Federal Reserve’s …
Andrea Ferrero · Maurizio Michael Habib · Livio Stracca · Fabrizio Venditti
Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies …
Junichi Fujimoto · David Lagakos · Mitchell VanVuren
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether publicly funded (“free”) secondary schooling in developing countries raises GDP per capita. The question is policy-relevant because many …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks why market liquidity sometimes behaves in a stabilizing way (an illiquidity hike curbs liquidity demand and attracts liquidity …
Layer 1: Overview Guner, Rauh, and Ventura document the scope, generosity, distributional impact, and time evolution of means-tested transfers to working-age US households, and provide parametric …
Barton H. Hamilton · Andrés Hincapié · Emma C. Kalish · Nicholas W. Papageorge
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The …
Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, …
Layer 1: Overview Chen, Hsieh, and Song study the use of unofficial non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by China during the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 and in the first year of the Phase 1 purchase …
Layer 1: Overview Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United …
Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital …
Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of endogenous growth driven by cumulative innovation, and uses it to characterize optimal patent policy — both for patent …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem …
Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal
Layer 1: Overview This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial …
Andrés Fernández · Daniel Guzman · Ruy Lama · Carlos Végh
Layer 1: Overview Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in …
Ferdinando Monte · Charly Porcher · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Layer 1: Overview Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 …
Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Debora Revoltella · Jan Svejnar · Christoph T. Weiss
Layer 1: Overview This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large empirical literature uses micro data to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of labor supply, a parameter crucial for …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips …
Layer 1: Overview This paper studies entrepreneurship and new firm creation in China through the lens of serial entrepreneurs (SEs) — individuals who establish more than one firm — contrasting them …
Layer 1: Overview U.S. outstanding student debt rose roughly 20-fold, from about $50 billion in 1985 to nearly $1 trillion in 2014 (about 7% of GDP), making it the second-largest form of household …
Layer 1: Overview Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the …
Katrine Jakobsen · Henrik Kleven · Jonas Kolsrud · Camille Landais · Mathilde Munoz
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Proposals to tax top wealth (e.g., Saez and Zucman, 2019) face a recurring objection in public debate: that the wealthy will emigrate en masse and, …
Xavier Cirera (World Bank) · Diego Comin (Dartmouth College) · Marcio Cruz (IFC · World Bank Group)
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that …
Patrick J. Kennedy · Christine L. Dobridge · Paul Landefeld · Jacob Mortenson
Layer 1: Overview This paper estimates the firm- and worker-level effects of the corporate income tax cuts in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — the largest corporate tax cut in U.S. history — to …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is …
Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do some firms pay persistently higher wages for observably similar workers, and what role do firms’ product-market power …
Layer 1: Overview This paper proposes that university R&D is determined endogenously by competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education, and asks why universities …
Michael W. L. Elsby · Axel Gottfries · Pawel Krolikowski · Gary Solon
Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual …
Layer 1: Overview This paper asks how the threat of forced climate migration — international displacement driven by climate-induced natural disasters — should alter optimal carbon taxation. The …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund …
Layer 1: Overview This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, …
Luís A.V. Catão · Jan Ditzen · Daniel Marcel Te Kaat
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks’ non-core funding, and whether exchange …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Folch and Mazzone ask how undergraduate student debt shapes three intertwined post-college decisions — whether to pursue a post-bachelor (graduate) …
Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic …
Layer 1: Overview Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal …
Layer 1: Overview This paper revisits the “reversal puzzle” — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian …
CHARLES M. KAHN · DAVID MARSHALL · ROBERT L. MCDONALD
Layer 1: Overview This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a “market-maker of last …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in “loan evergreening”—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of …
RODRIGO BARBONE GONZALEZ · JOÃO BARATA RIBEIRO BLANCO BARROSO · BERNARDUS FERDINANDUS NAZAR VAN DOORNIK
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — …
David Berger · Thomas Hasenzagl · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey · Eric A. Posner
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Antitrust review of mergers has historically focused almost entirely on harm to consumers (product-market monopoly), ignoring harm to workers …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies’ foreign debt …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents “present bias” — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for …
Layer 1: Overview When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that …
MELTEM CHADWICK · RENNAE CHERRY · JAQUESON K. GALIMBERTI
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate “transition risks” — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the “precautionary saving motive.” The …
THORSTEN BECK · PETER BEDNAREK · DANIEL TE KAAT · NATALJA VON WESTERNHAGEN
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system’s foreign-asset exposure plays in …
Layer 1: Overview This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as …
Layer 1: Overview Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, …
Sebastian Graves · Victoria Gregory · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas J. Sargent
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does endogenizing retirement (career-length) choice change the labor-supply and human-capital implications of the canonical Heckman, Lochner, …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given …
Pasqualina Arca · Gianfranco Atzeni · Luca G. Deidda
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends …
Carlo Altavilla · Refet S. Gürkaynak · Rogier Quaedvlieg
Layer 1: Overview This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households’ one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation. Public procurement accounts for roughly one-third of government spending (12.6% of GDP and 30% of total government expenditures in OECD countries in …
Layer 1: Overview Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European …
Filippo Pallotti · Gonzalo Paz-Pardo · Jiri Slacalek · Oreste Tristani · Giovanni L. Violante
Layer 1: Overview This paper measures the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the 2021-2023 inflation surge across households in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of Economics1 Apr 2026
Ilyana Kuziemko · Nicolas Longuet-Marx · Suresh Naidu
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why have less-educated voters in the United States abandoned the Democratic Party over recent decades? The paper argues that the Democratic Party’s …
Ana Costa-Ramón · Michaela Slotwinski · Ursina Schaede · Anne Ardila Brenøe
This paper investigates whether information constraints — rather than fully forward-looking choices — contribute to mothers’ reduced labor supply after childbirth, a key driver of gender …
Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Giacomo Lanzani · Andrei Shleifer
Bordalo, Gennaioli, Lanzani, and Shleifer develop a cognitive theory of choice in which a decision maker’s attention to the features of options is determined by her categorization of the current …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking24 Feb 2026
DOMINIK BODDIN · DANIEL MARCEL TE KAAT · CHANG MA · ALESSANDRO REBUCCI
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing …
This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics21 Feb 2025
Overview Research Question. Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to …
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Walker Ray · Dimitri Vayanos
Layer 1 — Core Argument The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic …
Joel P. Flynn · George Nikolakoudis · Karthik A. Sastry
Research Question Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, …
Research Question. Finocchiaro and Weil ask whether financial development necessarily promotes long-run economic growth, or whether congestion externalities in R&D markets can offset — and even …
Robert W. Hahn · Nathaniel Hendren · Robert D. Metcalfe · Ben Sprung-Keyser
This paper extends and applies the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) framework to evaluate the welfare consequences of 96 climate-related tax and spending policies in the United States. The MVPF …
Gaurav Khanna · Emir Murathanoglu · Caroline Theoharides · Dean Yang
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks how persistent increases in international migrant income prospects affect long-run economic development in migrant-origin areas. The central …
Layer 1 — Summary Many multinationals do not fully adjust wages to the local context of their foreign establishments; instead, they partially link the wages of foreign workers in a given position to …
This paper investigates the problem of additionality — the likelihood that a conservation action is marginal to (i.e., caused by) an incentive — in the United States Department of Agriculture’s …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Why do corporate defaults cluster in recurring episodes rather than occurring smoothly? The paper asks whether observable fundamental factors — firm …
Errico and Lashkari address two intertwined problems in the measurement of aggregate price indices: how to account for quality change and variety entry/exit when the demand system is not CES, and how …
This paper investigates the origins of serfdom in early modern Russia, arguing that the institution consolidated primarily through political economy dynamics between the crown and a landholding …
Christian Bayer · Ralph Luetticke · M. Weiss · Yannik Winkelmann
This paper introduces the Distributional Endogenous Gridpoint Method (DEGM), a novel numerical technique for solving the distributional dynamics that arise in heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models. …
Overview Research question. How should governments design neighborhood-based policies to improve long-run outcomes for children, once one accounts for general equilibrium (GE) forces—endogenous rents, …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether …
Felipe Del Canto · John Grigsby · Eric Qian · Conor Walsh
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate …
Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …
This paper develops an auction model that jointly incorporates three frictions pervading informal price-formation processes: (1) costly recruitment by the seller, (2) costly participation by bidders, …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should regulators restrict banks from proactively raising credit card limits using machine-learning algorithms, and if so, how? The paper asks: to what extent are …
Acemoglu and Restrepo examine the effects of automation in economies where labor market distortions cause some workers to earn rents—wages above their opportunity cost or outside option. The central …
Bank Information Production Over the Business Cycle Research Question
Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics30 Oct 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How prevalent is individual wage bargaining in the labor market, what determines firms’ bargaining strategies, how do bargaining encounters unfold for …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics23 Jun 2025
Bruno Pellegrino · Enrico Spolaore · Romain Wacziarg
Overview Research Question. Why do observed international investment positions and cross-country differences in rates of return to capital fail to conform to a frictionless capital-market benchmark? …
Almut Balleer · Georg Duernecker · Susanne Forstner · Johannes Goensch
Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers’ biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) …
Elliot Anenberg · Tess Scharlemann · Eileen van Straelen
Overview Research Question. Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing (“the cash-out refinance channel”), or does it …
ForthcomingQuarterly Journal of Economics1 Jun 2025
Ariel T Burstein · Vasco M Carvalho · Basile Grassi
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
The paper asks how firm-level, sector-level, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation, and whether a single structural model can …
This paper measures the causal effects of land transport infrastructure on economic activity, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment, specifically by incorporating firm-level investment decisions — a dimension absent from …
Online FirstQuarterly Journal of Economics29 May 2026
The paper studies how the two roles of stock markets — revealing information about firms’ fundamentals (which guides capital allocation) and providing liquidity — interact, arguing that when …
Overview Farrokhi and Lashkaripour (2025) study the interaction between trade policy and climate change. The central research question is whether and how countries can use trade policy — specifically …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and …
Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …
This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …
ForthcomingJournal of Monetary Economics1 Jul 2026
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking4 Jun 2026
The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? …
Raj Chetty · Will Dobbie · Benjamin Goldman · Sonya R Porter · Crystal S Yang
This paper documents sharp divergent trends in intergenerational economic mobility by race and class in the United States across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, and investigates the causal mechanisms …
Layer 1 — Overview
This paper develops a unified choice-theoretic framework in which agents evaluate alternatives not in isolation but relative to their opportunity costs — the alternatives they …
Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Sandra Sequeira
This paper examines the impact of conflict-driven forced displacement on human capital accumulation using the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) as the empirical setting. During this war, over four …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — …
This paper asks whether exposure to greater female representation in the workplace can persistently reduce intergenerational gender gaps in labor market outcomes. The authors exploit the sudden, …
This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes’ rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals …
This paper asks how a third-party intermediary (an “algorithm”) that observes market demand or costs superior to competing firms should optimally disclose that information to maximize the …
Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles can resolve the capital over-accumulation problem when the economy is …
This comment, written by J. Carter Braxton (University of Wisconsin), discusses the paper “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong (2025), which develops …
This paper is a published comment by Miao Ben Zhang (USC Marshall School of Business) on Mihet, Rishabh, and Gomes (2025), “Is It AI or Data That Drives Market Power?” Zhang identifies …
This paper studies how immigration enforcement affects public safety, asking two questions: (1) what is the effect of increased enforcement on criminal victimization, and (2) how does increased …
This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …
Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …
Research Question
How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger …
Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …
Fernando Alvarez · Katarína Borovičková · Robert Shimer
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of …
Kristine W. Hankins · Morteza Momeni · David Sovich
Overview Research Question. Do import tariffs affect consumer credit terms, and does focusing solely on goods prices understate tariff pass-through to consumers? The paper also asks whether vertical …
ForthcomingJournal of Monetary Economics1 Jan 2026
Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two …
Haupt and Hitzig introduce a framework for comparing the privacy properties of different mechanism protocols. The core research question is: when a designer commits to implementing a social choice …
Sara G Castellanos · Diego Jiménez-Hernández · Aprajit Mahajan · Eduardo Alcaraz Prous · Enrique Seira
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks two related questions bearing on financial inclusion policy in developing countries: (1) How effective are credit card contract term changes — …
This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics11 Dec 2024
Jonathan Payne · Bálint Szőke · George Hall · Thomas J Sargent
Overview This paper constructs a new dataset of US federal bond prices and uses it to estimate the full term structure of yields on gold-denominated US federal debt from 1791 to 1933 — the entire gold …
Myrto Kalouptsidi · Yuichi Kitamura · Lucas Lima · Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues
Research Question. Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents’ utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking2 Dec 2025
Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England’s published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, …
This paper asks how rising returns to scale in production contributed to three concurrent U.S. secular trends since 1980: declining business dynamism, rising markups, and growing firm expenditures on …
This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …
Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger
This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking4 Jun 2026
This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …
Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wuthrich · Yinchu Zhu
Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …
This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …
Overview Research question. Does automatic enrollment (auto-enrollment) in retirement savings plans increase lifetime wealth accumulation and welfare? The prior literature established large short-run …
This paper asks whether digital platforms can improve healthcare outcomes by enabling needs-based matching between patients and physicians unconstrained by geography. Amanda Dahlstrand studies digital …
Agarwal and Somaini study demand estimation in markets where consumers face latent choice constraints — situations where a consumer’s effective choice set is determined not only by her …
Alan J Auerbach · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Daniel Murphy
This paper estimates the distributional and social consequences of Department of Defense (DOD) contract spending using a city-level (CBSA) panel dataset spanning 2005–2016. The research question is …
Ingrid Huitfeldt · Victoria Marone · Daniel Waldinger
This paper studies the design of dynamic reassignment mechanisms—centralized systems that must not only provide good initial matches but also accommodate changes in agents’ preferences over …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Ferrante and Gornemann study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in emerging market economies, focusing on a feature that prior …
This paper estimates the causal effects of mobile app usage on college students’ academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes, while separately identifying behavioral …
Andreas Hornstein · Marios Karabarbounis · André Kurmann · Etienne Lalé · Lien Ta
This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …
This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics22 Jul 2025
Layer 1 — Core Argument This paper constructs the first estimates of the aggregate and distributional effects of worldwide educational expansion since 1980 by developing a “distributional growth …
This paper investigates how buyer demand for supplier diversification shapes entry incentives and market structure, using the global undersea fiber-optic cable industry as the empirical setting. The …
This paper studies why children from high-income families are more likely to attend Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Chicago — 12 colleges total) and whether attending these …
Overview Research Question. To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics27 Nov 2024
Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive? Research Question The paper tests whether financial concerns distract workers sufficiently to meaningfully reduce their productivity, and whether …
Alec Brandon · Paul J Ferraro · John A List · Robert D Metcalfe · Michael K Price · Florian Rundhammer
This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking1 Dec 2025
Overview Research question. Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics22 Sep 2025
Layer 1 — Summary An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are …
José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf
This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …
Layer 1 — Summary Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that …
This paper evaluates the efficiency of linked environmental regulation, a targeting mechanism whereby inspectors who discover violations at one plant can increase enforcement pressure on other plants …
Each month a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more, creating thousands of natural experiments in which the same property’s rent and capital value are revealed …
Overview Research question. This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers’ educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare …
Overview Research Question. Can income tax schedules be justified as utilitarian-optimal without adopting extreme normative assumptions about how household welfare should be measured? The paper …
Gautam Gowrisankaran · Ashley Langer · Mar Reguant
This paper asks how rate-of-return (RoR) regulation in U.S. electricity markets affects the speed and efficiency of energy transitions, specifically the transition from coal to combined-cycle natural …
Ali Almelhem · Murat Iyigun · Austin Kennedy · Jared Rubin
This paper tests Joel Mokyr’s claim that Britain’s industrialization was preceded and enabled by a cultural shift — specifically, that Enlightenment ideals produced a …
Covert and Kellogg study policies that aim to “keep carbon in the ground” by blocking fossil fuel infrastructure investment, with the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) as their empirical …
Diego Gentile Passaro · Fuhito Kojima · Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper studies the labor market effects of “Equal Pay for Similar Work” (EPSW) policies — laws that require firms to pay equal wages to workers of …
ForthcomingJournal of Monetary Economics1 Jun 2026
Brent Bundick · Isabel Cairó · Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates whether and how assumptions about household and firm expectations alter the macroeconomic implications of asymmetries commonly embedded in …
Online FirstJournal of Political Economy2 Apr 2026
The paper develops an asset demand system to analyze, jointly and across all countries, how international portfolio holdings and flows, exchange rates, short-term rates, long-term yields, and equity …
Overview Research Question. What drives the joint historical dynamics of the term structure of equity yields and nominal bond yields — and can a single unified equilibrium model explain the …
Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks whether an explicit, global, closed-form solution exists for the consumption function in the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing …
Correia, Luck, and Verner ask a foundational question in banking: why do banks fail? Specifically, they seek to adjudicate between two theoretical views — the solvency view (failures caused by …
Renato Faccini · Seungcheol Lee · Ralph Luetticke · Morten O. Ravn · Tobias Renkin
Overview Research Question. How do consumer credit spreads — the gap between household borrowing rates and deposit rates — affect aggregate business cycle dynamics and the distribution of consumption …
This paper develops a sufficient statistics approach to measuring the aggregate demand effects of financial intermediation disturbances — shocks to the ability of financial intermediaries to supply …
Kirstin Hubrich · Yves S. Schüler · Daniel Waggoner
This paper investigates the role of leverage of financial institutions in amplifying the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy, with particular attention to whether that amplification …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper studies (1) how firm accommodation decisions respond to financial incentives in the context of workplace disability under workers’ compensation, …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
How do aggregate economic fluctuations reallocate workers across the firm productivity distribution over the business cycle? In particular, to what extent do …
Emmanuel Dhyne · Ayumu Ken Kikkawa · Toshiaki Komatsu · Magne Mogstad · Felix Tintelnot
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks three related questions in the context of Belgium, a small open economy: (1) What do firms’ responses to demand shocks reveal about their …
Moro and Nispi Landi develop FraNK, a multi-country New Keynesian model designed to study geoeconomic fragmentation — defined, following Aiyar et al. (2023), as a policy-driven reversal of economic …
This paper studies a dynamic mechanism design problem in which an informed seller sells an experience good to a skeptical buyer who learns about the product through consumption. The central question …
Nava Ashraf · Maxim Bakhtin · Erica Field · Alessandra Voena · Roberta Ziparo
This paper investigates whether information asymmetries within households about maternal health risk can explain persistent spousal disagreement over fertility in a high-fertility, …
Eduardo Azevedo · Jonathan Beauchamp · Richard Karlsson Linnér
This paper asks how much adverse selection would arise in critical illness insurance (CII) markets if consumers can observe polygenic indexes (PGIs) — genetic risk scores derived from millions of …
N. Meltem Daysal · Hui Ding · Maya Rossin-Slater · Hannes Schwandt
This paper studies the short- and long-term consequences of intra-household respiratory disease transmission from older to younger siblings in Danish families. The central research questions are: (1) …
This paper investigates whether individuals who have experienced stronger GDP growth over their lifetimes are more likely to trust their national government. The authors — Besley, Dann, and Dray — …
Capatina and Keane build and calibrate a life-cycle model of labor supply and savings for U.S. men that incorporates health shocks, endogenous human capital accumulation via learning-by-doing, …
ForthcomingJournal of Money, Credit and Banking1 Nov 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
De Veirman and de Jong develop a new approach to estimating the macroeconomic effects of changes in regulatory loan-to-value (LTV) limits on mortgage loans. The …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Jo and Kim ask two related questions: (1) How do firms use different types of innovation when learning others’ technology takes time? (2) How does this …
This paper asks why job polarization and income inequality are higher in large U.S. cities, and proposes a novel housing-market mechanism that operates independently of — but interacts with — the …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking27 Mar 2026
Kristian S. Blickle · Sarah N. Hamerling · Donald P. Morgan
Using FEMA disaster declarations matched to SHELDUS property-damage estimates and Call Report data for 1995–2018, this paper finds that weather disasters — even at their most severe — have had modest …
ForthcomingJournal of Money, Credit and Banking1 Nov 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper examines how the effects of rising U.S. interest rates on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) depend on the underlying source of the …
Ben Weidmann · Joseph Vecci · Farah Said · Sonia Bhalotra · Achyuta Adhvaryu · Anant Nyshadham · Jorge Tamayo · David Deming
This paper develops a novel experimental method to identify the causal contribution of managers to team performance, and uses it to evaluate which characteristics predict managerial effectiveness and …
This paper quantifies the effect of the Manne Economics Institute for Federal Judges — an intensive two-week economics training program run by the Law and Economics Center from 1976 to 1998 — on the …
This paper studies linear panel data models where regression coefficients are individual-specific (random coefficients) and regressors may be predetermined — that is, sequentially exogenous rather …
Aprajit Mahajan · Christian Michel · Alessandro Tarozzi
This paper addresses two related problems: the formal identification of time-inconsistent preferences in dynamic discrete choice models with unobserved heterogeneous types, and the structural …
Jorge García-Hombrados · Marcel Jansen · Angel Martínez · Berkay Özcan · Pedro Rey-Biel · Antonio Roldán-Monés
This paper investigates how the ideological alignment between knowledge-disseminating institutions and policymakers affects the adoption of evidence-based policies. The core research question is …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher’s (1933) debt-deflation mechanism as it operates during Sudden Stop crises — episodes …
Jonas E Arias · Juan F Rubio-Ramírez · Minchul Shin · Daniel F Waggoner
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. The paper asks how to conduct valid Bayesian inference in time-varying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) identified with sign restrictions, a setting in …
Joaquin Blaum · Federico Esposito · Sebastian Heise
Blaum, Esposito, and Heise study how supply chain risk — specifically, the risk of unexpected shipping delays caused by ocean weather conditions — affects U.S. manufacturing firms’ import …
Kim and Li study how publicly provided reinsurance affects insurer behavior and market outcomes in health insurance markets where firms face substantial cost uncertainty. The central question is …
This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence that Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) — a remote-sensing-triggered, automated payout scheme for pastoralists — substantially reduces …
Esther Duflo · Pascaline Dupas · Elizabeth Spelke · Mark Walsh
This paper provides experimental evidence on the intergenerational impacts of secondary education subsidies in a low-income context, leveraging a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted in rural …
Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether differences in labor market regulations — specifically payroll taxes and minimum wages — shape countries’ comparative advantage in the …
Marianne Bertrand · Matilde Bombardini · Raymond Fisman · Francesco Trebbi · Eyub Yegen
This paper investigates whether institutional investors influence the political activities of their portfolio firms, using political action committee (PAC) giving as a window into the broader question …
Hansen (2025) makes a theoretical case for replacing the conventional cluster-robust variance estimator (CRVE) and heteroskedasticity-consistent (HC) standard errors with a specific jackknife variance …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking24 Feb 2026
Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Calvo and Velasco study an economy where both money and government bonds provide liquidity services, and they show that this shared role implies …
This paper asks how a currency achieves international status — moving from zero to positive cross-border use — and whether deliberate central bank policy can accelerate that transition. The authors …
Labor Market Competition and the Assimilation of Immigrants Research Question Why have immigrant-native wage gaps widened substantially across arrival cohorts in the United States since the 1960s, and …
ForthcomingJournal of Monetary Economics1 Apr 2026
Serdar Birinci · Fatih Karahan · Yusuf Mercan · Kurt See
Overview Research question. The paper asks two related questions: (1) How much, and through which channels, do employer-to-employer (EE) worker transitions affect macroeconomic outcomes — particularly …
Lewis, Melcangi, and Pilossoph estimate the unconditional distribution of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) using the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act (ESA) rebate payments, deploying Gaussian …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt — specifically, the degree to which a borrowing country’s external debt is concentrated among a …
This paper investigates whether virtual contact — exposure to an outgroup through a documentary film — can promote interethnic harmony, and whether targeting network-central individuals amplifies …
Layer 1 – Overview Research Question
This paper asks how wage inequalities build up over the life cycle when individual wage trajectories are plagued by interruptions in private-sector …
ForthcomingJournal of Monetary Economics1 Apr 2026
Layer 1 — Overview Research question. The paper asks: what are the sources of cross-country differences in aggregate employment across European economies, and which types of worker flows — between …
Alexander W. Cappelen · Shachar Kariv · Erik Ø. Sørensen · Bertil Tungodden · William R. Zame
This paper asks whether an individual’s attitude toward risk in the personal domain (choices affecting only oneself) can be linked to that same individual’s attitude toward risk in the …
The paper develops a tractable open-economy New Keynesian model with nominal rigidities and an occasionally binding zero lower bound (ZLB) to study how monetary policy and macroprudential policy …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics15 May 2025
Amy Finkelstein · Matthew J Notowidigdo · Frank Schilbach · Jonathan Zhang
Overview Research Question. Does the Great Recession reduce or increase mortality, and what are the welfare implications of incorporating recession-induced mortality changes into standard …
This paper develops a uniform asymptotic theory for local projection (LP) regression under general conditions, addressing a gap in the literature where existing results required restrictive …
This paper asks why managers matter for firm performance, and specifically whether managers improve productivity by matching workers to better-suited jobs inside firms rather than through supervision, …
This paper asks whether managers are paid for market power. Bao, De Loecker, and Eeckhout build a general equilibrium model in which firms compete oligopolistically in goods markets (following Atkeson …
Daniel Björkegren · Joshua E. Blumenstock · Samsun Knight
This paper addresses the problem of algorithmic manipulation: when consequential decisions are encoded in machine learning algorithms, individuals strategically alter their behavior to achieve desired …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking1 Feb 2026
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. This paper asks whether heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) stems from temporary circumstances (e.g., transient wealth shocks that tighten …
This paper asks whether enrolling in an American public university generates positive net returns for marginal students — those who barely qualify for admission — and whether those returns justify …
Matthew Elliott · Andrea Galeotti · Andrew Koh · Wenhao Li
This paper asks what market outcomes an information designer — modeled as an internet platform that knows consumers’ preferences — can achieve by choosing what information to disclose to …
This paper by Jaakkola and Wagener addresses a long-standing open problem in the theory of differential games: how to make Markov-perfect equilibria (MPE) well-defined when best-response policy …
Anderson, Rebelo, and Wong study the behavior of markups in the retail sector across regions and over time, using a combination of firm-level Compustat data and product-level scanner data from two …
Online FirstJournal of Political Economy2 Jun 2026
What this paper finds — and why it matters Across macroeconomics, market power is almost always modelled with the Dixit–Stiglitz (1977) monopolistic-competition framework, in which a seller’s …
Bisin and Tura study the cultural integration of immigrants in Italy by estimating a structural model of marital matching embedded with intra-household decisions — fertility, socialization of …
ForthcomingQuarterly Journal of Economics1 Sep 2024
Hadi Elzayn · Evelyn Smith · Thomas Hertz · Cameron Guage · Arun Ramesh · Robin Fisher · Daniel E Ho · Jacob Goldin
Overview Research Question. Do Black taxpayers face higher IRS audit rates than non-Black taxpayers, despite race-blind audit selection? And if so, why — and what would mitigation look like?
Data and …
Vivek Bhattacharya · Gastón Illanes · David Stillerman
This paper by Bhattacharya, Illanes, and Stillerman makes two contributions to the debate over US antitrust enforcement stringency. First, it documents the price, quantity, and assortment effects of a …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics21 Feb 2025
Jacob D Orchard · Valerie A Ramey · Johannes F Wieland
Layer 1 — Overview Research question. Do the high marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) estimated in the leading household studies of the 2008 U.S. tax rebates—particularly Parker et al. (2013), …
Overview Research question. Can minimum wages improve welfare through efficiency — by correcting monopsony-driven under-employment — and, if so, by how much? What is the optimal minimum wage, and how …
This paper develops and estimates a structural model of ADHD diagnosis to decompose the mechanisms driving the observed 2.3:1 male-to-female diagnostic difference in the United States. The research …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking23 Oct 2025
Analyzing panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF, 1992Q1–2019Q4, 77 forecasters, 1,520 forecaster-quarter observations), Julio Ortiz finds that a “misspecified …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking14 May 2026
This paper introduces a Bayesian Gaussian mixture density regression framework that estimates the complete forecast distribution of inflation — not just selected quantiles — and decomposes the entire …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking15 Sep 2025
This paper analyzes how monetary policy should respond to a long-run natural interest rate that can drift permanently — following a bounded random walk with upper bound 3 percent and lower bound 0 …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking2 Jun 2026
This paper examines optimal monetary policy under discretion when the loss function is asymmetric — placing greater weight on employment shortfalls than on equivalently sized employment strength. The …
Rüdiger Bachmann · Christian Bayer · Heiko Stüber · Felix Wellschmied
Layer 1 — Summary When employers face a trade-off between growing large and paying low wages — that is, when they have monopsony power — some productive employers will decide to acquire fewer …
Overview Research Question. Minoiu, Zarutskie, and Zlate ask whether participation in the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)—a Federal Reserve emergency facility launched in mid-2020 to channel credit …
The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the empirical observation of a sharp, simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange …
Peter Andre · Ingar Haaland · Christopher Roth · Mirko Wiederholt · Johannes Wohlfart
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates two related empirical questions in the context of the historic surge in US inflation in late 2021 and 2022: (1) What narratives—causal …
This paper proves a central limit theorem (CLT) for network formation models with strategic interactions and homophilous agents, addressing a foundational inferential gap in the econometrics of large …
Anmol Bhandari · Tobey Kass · Thomas J. May · Ellen R. McGrattan · Evan Schulz
This paper uses a novel longitudinal administrative dataset drawn from U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and Social Security Administration (SSA) records to characterize income dynamics and the …
Árpád Ábrahám · Eva Carceles-Poveda · Yan Liu · Ramon Marimon
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks how to optimally design a Financial Stability Fund (Fund) for a union of sovereign countries that must simultaneously (i) prevent sovereign …
Daron Acemoglu · Daniel Huttenlocher · Asuman Ozdaglar · James Siderius
Acemoglu, Huttenlocher, Ozdaglar, and Siderius develop a two-sided platform model to study the welfare consequences of digital advertising as an online business model. The platform intermediates …
This paper revisits the open rule legislative bargaining model of Baron and Ferejohn (1989) — the dominant workhorse model in political economy for analyzing how legislatures divide a surplus — and …
Timothy Christensen · Hyungsik Roger Moon · Frank Schorfheide
This paper derives asymptotically optimal statistical decision rules for discrete choice problems when the payoffs associated with some choices are only partially identified. The research question is: …
The Chamley-Judd result (1986) states that the optimal long-run capital income tax rate is zero in representative-agent models. This paper shows that introducing heterogeneous agents — specifically, …
Gabriel Kreindler · Arya Gaduh · Tilman Graff · Rema Hanna · Benjamin A. Olken
This paper studies how commuter preferences over wait times, travel times, and transfers should shape the design of urban bus networks, using the world’s largest Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system — …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics10 Aug 2024
Gene M Grossman · Elhanan Helpman · Alejandro Sabal
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Grossman, Helpman, and Sabal ask what market failures arise in vertical supply chains with multiple production tiers, limited (non-anonymous) supply networks, …
Overview This paper asks whether and how optimal income taxation should change when firms have market power. The question is motivated by the documented rise in economy-wide markups since 1980, which …
This paper addresses a practical gap in the inference literature for sequential and adaptive experiments: while the design of such experiments has been studied extensively, there is little theory …
Schmidt and von Wangenheim develop a dynamic model of organizational change in which workers have reference-dependent preferences — specifically loss aversion and social comparisons — to explain …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking23 Jun 2026
The paper introduces the concept of “passive quantitative easing” (passive QE): a deliberate reduction in government debt issuance that lowers anticipated future bond supply and reduces …
This paper examines how anticipated changes in patent term affect R&D and innovation, using the U.S. ratification of the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement in …
This paper investigates the mechanisms behind peer effects in the classroom using exogenous variation in study disruptions generated by the 2010 Maule mega-earthquake in Chile (magnitude 8.8, the …
This paper investigates whether exposure to a larger share of female peers during an MBA program causally affects the gender gap in senior corporate leadership positions. The research question is …
This paper develops a general nonparametric model of discrete choice in which peers influence agents through two distinct channels: (1) the set of alternatives an agent considers (consideration set …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates two interrelated questions about historical banking crises: (1) whether bank losses during banking crises are primarily temporary or …
Beat Hintermann · Beaumont Schoeman · Joseph Molloy · Thomas Götschi · Alberto Castro · Christopher Tchervenkov · Uros Tomic · Kay W Axhausen
This paper reports on the MOBIS experiment, a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT) implementing a multi-modal Pigovian transport pricing scheme in urban areas of German- and French-speaking …
Cecile Gaubert · Patrick Kline · Damian Vergara · Danny Yagan
Place-Based Redistribution: Overview Research Question
Should national governments redistribute income to residents of poor areas through place-based transfers, or should redistribution rely solely on …
ForthcomingJournal of Money, Credit and Banking1 Feb 2026
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Dennis and Kirsanova ask whether shocks to labor-market matching efficiency and worker bargaining power pose a significant problem for monetary policy, and whether …
DellaVigna and Kim study the innovation and diffusion of policies across U.S. states using a dataset of over 700 state laws spanning seven decades. The central question is what predicts whether a …
Emanuele Colonnelli · Valdemar Pinho Neto · Edoardo Teso
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Do individual political views shape firm behavior and labor market outcomes in the private sector? Specifically, do business owners sort copartisan workers into …
José-Antonio Espín-Sánchez · Salvador Gil-Guirado · Nicholas Ryan
This paper studies rainmaking as an instrumental religious belief. The central research question is: why do people believe that prayer can bring rain, even though it does not work? The authors develop …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics10 Sep 2024
Layer 1 — Summary Maxted, Laibson, and Moll study fiscal and monetary policy in a partial-equilibrium heterogeneous-agent model in which homeowners have present-biased time preferences (Instantaneous …
This paper studies how public sector workers balance professional motivations against private economic concerns, using arrest decisions by Dallas Police Department (DPD) officers as the empirical …
Yuliya Rychalovska · Sergey Slobodyan · Rafael Wouters
This paper asks whether Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) data can be efficiently integrated into medium-scale DSGE models, and whether models with imperfectly rational expectations based on …
This paper asks three questions about supply-side climate policies in the oil market: how do oil companies respond to production-based taxes; what are the aggregate effects of such taxes on global CO2 …
Ball and Kattwinkel study quota mechanisms — linking mechanisms that impose aggregate constraints on agents’ reports across multiple decision problems — and provide the first theoretical …
This paper asks whether racial differences in labor income can simultaneously explain both the crime gap and the wealth gap between Black and White individuals in the United States. The authors build …
This paper studies racial disparities in federal criminal sentencing by analyzing abnormal bunching in the distribution of crack-cocaine amounts recorded at sentencing. The identifying variation comes …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper estimates the racial/ethnic gap in realized housing returns using administrative data on individual housing transactions, and investigates the …
This paper addresses a foundational gap in the random utility model (RUM) literature: existing axiomatizations by Falmagne (1978) and McFadden and Richter (1990) assume that whenever a menu is …
Singh and Venkataramani ask whether resource scarcity causes discriminatory rationing of health care by patient race, with patient death as the starkest possible outcome of biased allocation …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking12 Dec 2025
Layer 1 — What this paper finds and why it matters Governments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) routinely intervene in agricultural markets — procuring grain and redistributing it …
This paper quantitatively assesses the consequences of jurisdictional competition in the US life insurance industry, an $8 trillion market. The central question is whether competition between state …
This paper studies how Indonesia’s Islamic education sector responded to one of the largest state-driven mass schooling expansions in history — the SD INPRES program (Sekolah Dasar Presidential …
Abramson and Van Nieuwerburgh study Rent Guarantee Insurance (RGI), a product in which an insurer pays the landlord on behalf of a tenant who defaults on rent due to a negative income or health …
This paper establishes a causal connection between the opioid epidemic and the political realignment toward the Republican Party in the United States from the mid-2000s through 2022. The …
Gay, Gobbi, and Goñi test Le Play’s (1875) hypothesis that the French Revolution contributed to France’s early fertility decline by abolishing impartible inheritance. In 1793, a series of …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking25 Nov 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates how rising house prices affect the composition of household debt portfolios in Sweden during 2010–2014. Specifically, the authors ask …
This paper identifies and corrects a fundamental flaw in the standard methodology for testing efficient risk-sharing when shocks are covariate (affecting common prices rather than only individual …
Robot Adoption and Inflation Dynamics Research Question Basso and Rachedi investigate how robot adoption influences inflation dynamics — specifically, whether the surge in automation during the 2000s …
Running Primary Deficits Forever in a Dynamically Efficient Economy: Feasibility and Optimality Research Question The paper addresses two questions about government debt rollover. First, a positive …
Overview Research Question. Does rural-urban migration increase or decrease urban informality, and through what mechanisms — and does the answer depend on the time horizon?
Setting and Data. The paper …
Layer 1 — Core Argument Itskhoki and Mukhin develop a tractable open-economy model with financial market segmentation — in which only the government sector (including state banks and exporting firms) …
Grigoryan (2021) develops a unified general-equilibrium framework that jointly models school assignment mechanisms and the housing market to evaluate the welfare and distributional consequences of …
Bergemann, Heumann, and Wang study consumer surplus when a monopolist simultaneously engages in second-degree price discrimination (screening consumers within each market segment through …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper investigates whether intermediaries in the U.S. municipal bond market strategically exploit product design to increase search frictions and, through …
Deniz Dutz · Ingrid Huitfeldt · Santiago Lacouture · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky · Winnie van Dijk
This paper addresses nonresponse bias in surveys — the distortion that arises when survey participants differ systematically from nonparticipants in ways that correlate with the survey’s …
François Le Grand · Alaïs Martin-Baillon · Xavier Ragot
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Should monetary policy deviate from price stability to address redistributive concerns in an economy with heterogeneous agents? The paper jointly solves for …
This paper examines how two types of communication about a minority group affect discriminatory behavior: (i) horizontal communication between majority-group members, and (ii) top-down communication …
This paper proposes a model of skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC) to explain patterns in U.S. bottom-half wage inequality that standard RBTC models cannot account for. The …
This paper estimates the long-term causal effects of the Kampung Improvement Program (KIP), one of the world’s largest slum upgrading programs, on urban development in Jakarta, Indonesia. KIP …
ForthcomingJournal of Monetary Economics1 Jan 2026
James Bullard · Alex Grimaud · Isabelle Salle · Gauthier Vermandel
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Why did the 2021–2023 US inflation surge end in a soft landing — disinflation without a major recession — while the Volcker disinflation of 1979–1987 required …
Delventhal and Parkhomenko build a quantitative spatial model of the United States to study how the rise of telecommuting reshapes the distribution of residents, jobs, and housing costs across and …
This paper investigates the macroeconomic consequences of widespread just-in-time (JIT) inventory management, documenting a fundamental trade-off: JIT raises firm profitability and reduces micro-level …
This paper asks whether a labor market with search-and-matching frictions and firms producing under decreasing returns to labor is better characterized by in-house hiring with intra-firm wage …
Mastrorocco and Teso study how the internal organization of a state evolves during national development, framing state capacity as an organizational — specifically a principal-agent — problem. Using a …
Nicolas Coeurdacier · Florian Oswald · Marc Teignier
This paper asks how cities grow in the process of structural transformation — specifically, whether urban expansion occurs at the intensive margin (higher density within a fixed area) or the extensive …
Layer 1 — Overview Research question. How do workforce composition (labor supply), labor demand, and minimum wage policy jointly determine the wage distribution in imperfectly competitive labor …
Overview This paper studies the efficiency of self-enforced relational agreements in manufacturing supply chains when sellers have market power and contracts cannot be externally enforced. The setting …
This paper provides the first empirical evidence of talent hoarding in organizations — the practice whereby managers deliberately suppress workers’ internal mobility to retain productive team …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Does corporate income taxation raise or lower corporate leverage? The canonical Modigliani-Miller (1963) view holds that the interest tax deduction makes debt more …
Online FirstJournal of Money, Credit and Banking19 Nov 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
The paper addresses a fundamental limitation of the standard Taylor rule as a monetary policy stance gauge: the rule is defined solely for the overnight federal …
This paper estimates the causal effect of technology and knowledge transfers on early industrial development using the Sino-Soviet Alliance of the 1950s as a natural experiment. Between 1950 and 1957, …
This paper uses randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in multiple countries to study whether the economic environment — specifically the level of inflation — affects how agents learn from …
Kwon and Roth develop econometric tests for the “sharp null of full mediation”: the hypothesis that a treatment D affects an outcome Y only through a specified mechanism (or set of …
This paper examines how the architecture of social networks shapes the success or failure of technology diffusion when adoption decisions exhibit strategic complementarities. The research question is: …
Samuel Bazzi · Andreas Ferrara · Martin Fiszbein · Thomas Pearson · Patrick A Testa
This paper investigates how white migration out of the postbellum South diffused Confederate culture and entrenched racial norms across the United States during a critical juncture of westward …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks how changes in the composition (not the size) of Chinese local government debt influence bank risk-taking, credit allocation between privately …
Howard and Shao document a new empirical regularity in U.S. internal migration: the t-year interstate migration rate — defined as the share of people living in a different state than they did t years …
This paper develops a dynamic principal-agent model in which a principal seeks to select exactly one project from a stream of possibilities emerging over time, while a biased agent (who wants any …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics13 Jan 2025
Joshua D Gottlieb · Maria Polyakova · Kevin Rinz · Hugh Shiplett · Victoria Udalova
Overview Research Question. What do U.S. physicians earn, how is that earnings variation structured across geography and specialty, and how much does government healthcare payment policy shape those …
This paper develops an economic theory of competitive equilibrium with indivisible goods that accommodates both complementarities and substitutabilities. The central research question is: what …
This paper studies the intergenerational effects of education policy on crime, asking whether a compulsory schooling reform that reduced crime among those directly exposed also reduced crime among …
This paper is a comment on Moretti (2021b), which studied agglomeration effects for innovation by testing whether the size of technology clusters causes patenting. The original paper (M21) used US …
Masten and Poirier demonstrate a previously unrecognized asymmetry in the coefficient stability literature: depending on how omitted variable bias is measured, it can be substantially easier for …
This paper asks whether racial concordance between patients and medical providers — specifically, whether Black patients are treated by Black physicians — improves use of preventive care and reduces …
Greenberg, Wasserman, and Weber (2024/2026) ask whether men negatively respond—in terms of job performance, behavior, and workplace perceptions—when women first enter an exclusively male occupation. …
This paper studies the causal effects of mandatory profit-sharing on workers and firms using a quasi-experimental design arising from a 1990 French reform that lowered the eligibility threshold for …
ForthcomingQuarterly Journal of Economics1 Dec 2024
Raymond Kluender · Neale Mahoney · Francis Wong · Wesley Yin
Layer 1: Overview Research Question
This paper asks whether relieving downstream medical debt — debt that has been sold to third-party debt collectors — causes improvements in financial outcomes, …
This paper documents and quantifies an “environmental bias” embedded in the U.S. corporate income tax code: CO2-intensive (“dirty”) firms systematically face lower effective …
Tanguy Bernard · Stefan Dercon · Kate Orkin · Giulio Schinaia · Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
This paper tests whether a light-touch behavioral intervention targeting aspirations can produce persistent economic effects on a poor rural population. The research question is whether changing how …
This paper asks why unemployment rates differ so persistently across local labor markets, and what role job creation and job destruction play in generating those differences. The authors document a …
This paper estimates a causal housing wealth effect on consumption using a quasi-natural experiment in Stockholm, Sweden. The identification exploits an unanticipated political decision — announced in …
Donna and Espín-Sánchez investigate whether a market (sequential English auction) or a non-market institution (fixed quota) more efficiently allocates an intermediate good — irrigation water — when …
Andrew Garin · Dmitri Koustas · Carl McPherson · Samuel Norris · Matthew Pecenco · Evan K. Rose · Yotam Shem-Tov · Jeffrey Weaver
Overview This paper estimates the causal effect of incarceration on employment, wage earnings, self-employment, and tax filing behavior using administrative criminal justice data linked to Internal …
David A. Green · Ben M. Sand · Iain G. Snoddy · Jeanne Tschopp
This paper estimates the impact of unions on nonunion wage setting in the United States over the period 1980–2010, distinguishing two channels through which unions affect nonunion wages: (1) a …
ForthcomingQuarterly Journal of Economics1 Oct 2024
Overview Research Question. Does government-led construction of large manufacturing plants in previously under-industrialized regions generate long-run improvements in regional economic development …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
How does an exchange rate depreciation causally affect macroeconomic outcomes? The paper asks whether depreciations are expansionary or contractionary, and through …
Overview Research question. How does partial capital irreversibility — arising from a wedge between the purchase price and the resale (discounted) price of capital — shape the persistence and …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
Eaton and Fieler seek to reconcile two literatures that have advanced in parallel but remained at odds: (i) general equilibrium models of bilateral trade flows …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics27 May 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. What is the optimal joint nonlinear earnings tax schedule for married couples? How should one spouse’s marginal tax rate depend on the other’s …
This paper studies the economics of illegal tropical forest fires in Indonesia, framed as a modern counterpart to Pigou’s canonical externality example of sparks from railway engines. The …
Natalia Emanuel · Emma Harrington · Amanda Pallais
This paper studies how physical proximity to coworkers affects on-the-job training and productivity, using software engineers at a Fortune 500 online retailer observed from 2019 to 2024. The authors …
Ronan C Lyons · Allison Shertzer · Rowena Gray · David Agorastos
Lyons, Shertzer, Gray, and Agorastos construct the first consistent, annual, quality-adjusted market rent and home sales price series for American cities spanning 1890–2006. The paper addresses a …
This paper studies the productivity of nurse practitioners (NPs) versus physicians performing overlapping tasks in Veterans Health Administration (VHA) emergency departments (EDs), exploiting a …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks whether informal redistributive pressure — the social obligation to share earned income with kin and social networks — distorts labor supply in …
Susan Athey · Raj Chetty · Guido W Imbens · Hyunseung Kang
This paper addresses a fundamental challenge in program evaluation: primary outcomes of interest — such as lifetime earnings or long-term employment — are often observed only with lengthy delays, …
Layer 1 — Summary Using sales and leasing transaction records for the Greater Toronto Area (2006–2018), this paper finds three novel effects of a higher property transaction tax: higher buy-to-rent …
Andres Rodriguez-Clare · Mauricio Ulate · Jose P. Vasquez
Standard international trade models assume perfectly flexible prices and full employment. This paper introduces nominal rigidities (downward wage rigidity) into a quantitative trade model and asks how …
This paper asks whether dowry — a transfer from the bride’s family to the groom’s household upon marriage, prevalent throughout India — enables male migration by providing liquidity that …
This paper investigates whether and how a CEO’s inherited generalized trust enhances innovation within firms, offering a micro-foundation for the well-documented macro-level relationship between …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
The paper asks why unconventional monetary policy (UMP) spillovers from the European Central Bank (ECB) to the U.S. Treasury yield curve vary so substantially over …
This paper provides the first causal evidence on how military service shaped Black civil rights activism in the aftermath of World War I. The research question is whether random induction into the …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper studies the labor market effects of voluntary minimum wages (VMWs) — company-wide, publicly announced wage floors set by large private employers — in …
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question. Which measures of labor market tightness best predict nominal wage inflation, and do standard measures such as the unemployment rate and the …
Daniel Björkegren · Joshua E Blumenstock · Samsun Knight
This paper asks a fundamental question about policy design: when a program prioritizes one group over another, is that because the group benefits more from the intervention, or because the policy …
Conlon and Patel test whether students stereotype the link between college majors and occupations — that is, whether they exaggerate the likelihood that majors lead to their …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics18 Feb 2025
Barbara Biasi · Julien Lafortune · David Schönholzer
What Works and for Whom? Effectiveness and Efficiency of School Capital Investments Across the U.S. Research Question This paper investigates which types of school facility investments benefit …
This paper studies how salary benchmarking tools — products that reveal aggregate market pay statistics for specific job titles — affect employee compensation. The research question is whether …
ForthcomingQuarterly Journal of Economics1 Dec 2024
Overview Research Question. When did sustained productivity growth begin in England? This paper constructs new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870, with the goal of …
Christine Blandhol · John Bonney · Magne Mogstad · Alexander Torgovitsky
This paper asks: when does two-stage least squares (TSLS) with covariates actually estimate a local average treatment effect (LATE) — a non-negatively weighted average of causal effects for compliers …
PublishedQuarterly Journal of Economics10 Dec 2025
Layer 1 — Overview Research Question
This paper asks how independent (pass-through) businesses in the United States accommodate minimum wage increases — specifically whether they reduce employment, …
This paper investigates a critical juncture in the development of national health insurance (NHI) in the United States: the post-World War II period when most peer nations moved to establish …
Greg Buchak · Gregor Matvos · Tomasz Piskorski · Amit Seru
This paper examines frictions in dealer intermediation in durable consumer goods markets, using iBuyers — technology-driven real estate companies such as Opendoor and Offerpad — as a lens. The central …
Layer 1 — Summary Research question and argument Dahl and Knepper address the long-standing puzzle of why workplace sexual harassment is chronically underreported despite high estimated prevalence. …