Where you understand macroeconomics paper.

Noah Williams

Williams asks whether the recurrent boom-bust dynamics of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis — "periods of stability lead to periods of instability" — can arise endogenously from a tractable …

Andrew Y. Chen · Francisco Palomino

Chen and Palomino prove a general irrelevance theorem identifying when risk aversion and time-varying risk are irrelevant for key model dynamics in representative-agent macroeconomic models. The …

Marc K Chan · Cain Polidano · Ha Vu · Roger Wilkins · Andrew Carter · Hang To

Governments across ten-plus countries — including Australia, the United States, Germany, and New Zealand — have introduced matching schemes to encourage low- and middle-income earners to contribute …

Lena Gerling · Arzu Kibris

This paper asks how individual-level exposure to internal armed conflict shapes social capital, specifically trust in institutions and trust in people. The question matters because trust is a core …

Peyman Firouzi Naeim · David W Johnston · Maryam Naghsh-Nejad

This paper examines how workplace environments shape the economic consequences that fall on mothers — but not fathers — when a child is diagnosed with cancer. The motivation is a gap in the …

Axel Gottfries

This paper resolves a long-standing theoretical impasse in labor search models: how to model wage bargaining when workers search on the job (OJS) and the quit rate depends on the wage. Shimer (2006) …

Kjetil Storesletten · Bo Zhao · Fabrizio Zilibotti

This paper asks why the nature of business cycles changes systematically as economies develop and shed their large agricultural sectors. The motivation is both empirical and theoretical.

Ana Fostel · John Geanakoplos · Gregory Phelan

The paper asks why large gross financial flows exist between similarly rich countries (especially the U.S. and Europe), why financial integration raises rather than lowers asset price volatility, and …

Saki Bigio · Diego R Känzig · Pablo Sánchez · Conor Walsh

This paper quantifies the sources and distributional consequences of unexpected carbon price changes for European households using a money-metric welfare framework. The motivation is stark: while …

Mitali Das · Gita Gopinath · Helene Hall · Taehoon Kim · Jeremy C. Stein

This paper investigates why non-U.S. central banks accumulate large holdings of dollar-denominated foreign exchange reserves, focusing on a previously under-emphasized motive: the currency mismatch of …

Réka Juhász · Shogo Sakabe · David E Weinstein

Research question and motivation: Why did the First Industrial Revolution (IR) spread to Meiji Japan—and to essentially no other non-Western country—during the first wave of globalization? The paper …

Patrick J. Kennedy · Christine L. Dobridge · Paul Landefeld · Jacob Mortenson

This paper estimates the firm- and worker-level effects of the corporate income tax cuts in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) — the largest corporate tax cut in U.S. history — to inform the …

Antoine Bertheau · Rune Vejlin

Research question and motivation. On-the-job search models typically organize firms along a "job ladder" — a common ranking by workers of available jobs — but they disagree on whether the rung is best …

Katharina Bergant · Prachi Mishra · Raghuram Rajan · Freddy Pinzon-Puerto

This paper examines how unexpected changes in U.S. monetary policy transmit to cross-border merger and acquisition (M&A) activity globally, covering both the volume of deals and their quality as …

Taeyoung Doh · Dongho Song · Shu-Kuei Yang

This paper proposes a text-based measure of monetary policy stance by modelling FOMC post-meeting statements as convex combinations of the staff-drafted dovish ("alternative A") and hawkish …

Julien Acalin · Laurence Ball

The fall in the US federal debt-held-by-the-public/GDP ratio from a postwar peak of 106% in fiscal year 1946 to a trough of 23% in 1974 is widely cited (Elmendorf-Mankiw, Krugman) as evidence that an …

Lucas Corrêa-Dias · Jordan J Norris · Heitor S Pellegrina

Food production accounts for roughly one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and richer nations contribute disproportionately through meat-intensive diets and input-intensive farming. This …

Mikael Carlsson · Alex Clymo · Knut-Eric Joslin

Carlsson, Clymo, and Joslin use Swedish manufacturing firm-level microdata for 1998–2013 to separately identify and characterize the cyclical behavior of physical productivity (TFPQ) shocks and demand …

Stephen Ayerst · Loren Brandt · Diego Restuccia

This paper asks how institutional distortions to factor markets affect not only the static allocation of inputs across farms but also the dynamic choices — crop selection and productivity-enhancing …

Philipp Hochmuth · Per Krusell · Kurt Mitman

This paper investigates how the EU's Fit-for-55 climate package will affect aggregate output and distribute its costs across the income distribution. The question matters because energy is a necessity …

Alvaro Garcia-Marin · Santiago Justel · Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

This paper provides a theory and evidence for why firms with higher markups extend more trade credit, focusing on a financing cost channel that is distinct from existing competition-based …

Eugene Tan

This paper investigates how the illiquidity of entrepreneurial capital shapes investment dynamics and wealth inequality. The central question is whether entrepreneurship drives wealth heterogeneity or …

Ia Vardishvili

US cohorts of establishments born in recessions persistently employ fewer workers at entry and over their life cycle, yet are on average more productive than expansionary cohorts; the number of …

Eric Jondeau · Gregory Levieuge · Jean-Guillaume Sahuc · Gauthier Vermandel

This paper asks whether public subsidies to green-technology producers, financed by a carbon tax, can materially reduce the macroeconomic cost of reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2060. The …

Ruixue Jia · Xiao Ma · Victoria Wenxin Xie

This paper studies how the expectation of rising flood risk — distinct from realized flood events — reshapes where firms locate, where workers live and how much they work, and what this implies for …

Tristany Armangué-Jubert · Tancredi Rapone · Alessandro Ruggieri

Firms are larger and grow faster over the life cycle in high-income countries, while labor markets in poorer countries are less competitive (employers hold more wage-setting power). The paper asks how …

Alessandro Ferrari · Francisco Queirós

Ferrari and Queirós ask why US recoveries have become progressively slower and argue that rising firm heterogeneity and market power — well-documented long-run trends — can substantially increase the …

Robert P Lieli · Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu

This paper develops a strategic model of point forecast production in environments where the forecast itself influences the outcome being predicted — what the authors call "forecasting with feedback." …

Hiroshi Inokuma · Juan M. Sánchez

This paper asks how the well-documented slowdown in labor-force growth affects aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) growth, a question that prior work on business dynamism had left unanswered. …

Rodrigo Adão · Costas Arkolakis · Federico Esposito

How do international trade shocks propagate through spatially connected regional labor markets, and how large are the general equilibrium effects that standard shift-share specifications miss? Adão, …

Hyejoon Im · John McLaren

Im and McLaren (2025) ask whether globalization induces governments to weaken labor standards for workers — the so-called "race to the bottom" (RTB) hypothesis. The question has high stakes: advocates …

Nick Pretnar · Maria Feldman

The paper investigates why the U.S. health-services sector has simultaneously experienced a tripling of relative prices since 1948 and a rise in the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) share from …

Flavien Moreau · Ludovic Panon

Moreau and Panon ask how much cartels cost the aggregate economy — in terms of both total factor productivity and welfare — and find the losses are considerably larger than the received wisdom from …

S. Borağan Aruoba · Thomas Drechsel

To study how monetary policy affects the economy, macroeconomists must isolate "shocks" — changes in interest rates that are not systematic responses to economic conditions. The paper proposes a new …

William A. Branch

Branch (2022) asks whether subjective consumer inflation expectations causally raise the inflation rate — a question whose empirical answer has been elusive despite its central role in New Keynesian …

Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Tanner Regan

Satellite nighttime lights (luminosity) are the dominant remote-sensing proxy for local economic conditions in low-income countries, yet their accuracy at fine spatial scales and over time has …

Holger Breinlich · Elsa Leromain · Dennis Novy · Thomas Sampson

Research question and motivation. How does import liberalization affect a country's export performance and welfare?

Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle

This paper documents and explains a previously unreported reversal in U.S. manufacturing inventory trends: after a 25-year secular decline, inventories-to-sales ratios have been rising steadily since …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Ari Kutai · Rafi Melnick

Research question and motivation. How do firms form and update inflation expectations during a monetary-policy regime change and a transition from high/volatile inflation to a low, stable, …

Carlo Altavilla · Giacomo Carboni · Michele Lenza · Harald Uhlig

This paper asks whether uncertainty in the interbank market — distinct from general macroeconomic uncertainty — raises the cost of bank credit to firms, and whether bank-specific characteristics …

Isabel Cairó · Avi Lipton

This paper addresses two connected questions: why do Black workers face persistently higher and more volatile unemployment than white workers, and can the Federal Reserve's August 2020 shift from a …

Benjamin Bridgman · Berthold Herrendorf

The paper asks why the U.S. labor share has declined over the postwar period, and whether rising markups or capital deepening (automation, falling capital prices) is the primary driver. The authors …

Christian Bredemeier · Babette Jansen · Roland Winkler

This paper proposes a novel fiscal transmission channel through which government spending expansions reduce employer monopsony power in the labor market, generating larger fiscal multipliers and …

Andrea Ferrero · Maurizio Michael Habib · Livio Stracca · Fabrizio Venditti

This paper investigates how institutional quality shapes (i) the domestic financial and macroeconomic impact of Global Financial Cycle (GFC) shocks on emerging market economies (EMEs) and (ii) the …

Sebastian Ellingsen

This paper asks whether the location of economic activity adapts to changes in the location of trading opportunities, or whether historical patterns of trade permanently fix where cities emerge and …

Jianjun Miao · Zhouxiang Shen · Dongling Su

This paper asks how bank holdings of long-term government securities interact with interest-rate-driven monetary tightening to amplify macroeconomic downturns and generate banking crises. The …

Junichi Fujimoto · David Lagakos · Mitchell VanVuren

This paper asks whether publicly funded ("free") secondary schooling in developing countries raises GDP per capita. The question is policy-relevant because many low-income countries — including Ghana, …

Vincenzo De Lipsis · Matteo Deleidi · Mariana Mazzucato · Paolo Agnolucci

This paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of US government R&D investment using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) framework, with an extension to a Rational Expectations SVAR …

Ariel Karlinsky · Moses Shayo

Karlinsky and Shayo ask which governments manipulate public information, in which direction, and by how much — questions that are normally intractable because the ground truth is unobservable. The …

Giovanni Cespa · Xavier Vives

The paper asks why market liquidity sometimes behaves in a stabilizing way (an illiquidity hike curbs liquidity demand and attracts liquidity supply) but on other occasions "evaporates when it is most …

Nezih Guner · Christopher Rauh · Gustavo Ventura

Guner, Rauh, and Ventura document the scope, generosity, distributional impact, and time evolution of means-tested transfers to working-age US households, and provide parametric estimates of transfer …

Barton H. Hamilton · Andrés Hincapié · Emma C. Kalish · Nicholas W. Papageorge

This paper asks why medical innovation can widen health disparities even when it unambiguously improves health for everyone who takes it. The authors argue that the standard access-versus-preferences …

Christiaan van der Kwaak

When central banks pay interest on reserves — as the Federal Reserve has done since October 2008 and as is standard operating procedure today — does financing fiscal stimulus by permanently expanding …

Hassan Afrouzi · Marina Halac · Kenneth Rogoff · Pierre Yared

Post-pandemic inflation across advanced economies rose to levels not seen since the early 1980s, reviving interest in central bank credibility. The standard quantitative macro models used to interpret …

Salomon Garcia-Villegas

This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of the U.S. housing finance system that jointly determines mortgage credit and mortgage-backed security (MBS) issuance, with the aim of …

Tuo Chen · Chang-Tai Hsieh · Zheng (Michael) Song

Chen, Hsieh, and Song study the use of unofficial non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by China during the U.S.-China trade war of 2018–2019 and in the first year of the Phase 1 purchase agreement (2020). The …

Davide Debortoli · Mario Forni · Luca Gambetti · Luca Sala

This paper measures how the inflation-unemployment tradeoff associated with monetary policy varies with both the sign of the monetary intervention (easing versus tightening) and the state of the …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler

Gagliardone and Gertler ask why the US inflation surge that began in mid-2021 was both sudden and persistent, and whether a simple structural model can account for it without targeting inflation in …

Minsu Chang · Frank Schorfheide

This paper asks how conventional and informational monetary policy shocks affect the cross-sectional distributions of labor earnings, consumption, and financial income in the United States. The …

Vahagn Jerbashian

This paper estimates the elasticities of substitution between labor, information and communication technology (ICT) and intellectual property (IP) capital, and traditional capital using a nested …

Davin Chor · Edwin L.-C. Lai

This paper develops a tractable general equilibrium model of endogenous growth driven by cumulative innovation, and uses it to characterize optimal patent policy — both for patent breadth (via a …

Thomas Douenne · Albert Jan Hummel · Marcelo Pedroni

This paper asks whether inequality and redistributive taxation should make climate policy more or less ambitious, and how optimal carbon taxes interact with optimal income taxes when households differ …

Damien Capelle · Yang Liu

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of a tax on inflation policy (TIP)—a fiscal instrument that would require firms to pay a tax proportional to the increase in their prices—as a complement to …

Kee-Youn Kang · Zijian Wang

Research question and motivation: Digital payments generate vast, high-frequency, transaction-level data that several central banks (Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank, Eurosystem members) already …

Mohamad Adhami · Mark Bils · Charles I. Jones · Peter J. Klenow

The paper asks how much economic progress looks different when one applies a total utilitarian welfare criterion — counting every person's flow utility — rather than the standard per-capita …

Frédéric Docquier · Stefano Iandolo · Hillel Rapoport · Riccardo Turati · Gonzague Vannoorenberghe

This paper investigates how the skill structure of globalization shocks — rather than globalization per se — drives the long-run evolution of populism across countries, making a unified empirical case …

Matthew Klepacz

This paper asks whether increases in aggregate volatility reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy by making aggregate prices more flexible. The motivation is concrete: policymakers worry that …

Lukasz A. Drozd · Marcin Kolasa · Jaromir B. Nosal

This paper evaluates five microfounded pricing-to-market (PTM) mechanisms and one reduced-form aggregator in a two-country DSGE model with volatile exchange rates driven by financial shocks (following …

Andrés Fernández · Daniel Guzman · Ruy Lama · Carlos Végh

Developing and emerging economies exhibit procyclical fiscal policy on both the spending and taxation sides: government expenditures expand in booms and contract in recessions, and tax rates fall in …

Weizheng Lai · Lixin Colin Xu · Li Yang

Research question and motivation: How do civil wars affect long-term development, and through which institutional mechanisms? The paper studies the Taiping Rebellion (1850-1864) in Qing China, one of …

Ferdinando Monte · Charly Porcher · Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Monte, Porcher, and Rossi-Hansberg ask why remote work surged abruptly and permanently after COVID-19 despite information-technology advances raising it only marginally between 1980 and 2019, why the …

Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Debora Revoltella · Jan Svejnar · Christoph T. Weiss

This paper investigates why firms in the European Union exhibit wide dispersion in marginal revenue products (MRP) of capital and labor — a direct indicator of resource misallocation — and asks how …

Scott French · Tess M. Stafford

A large empirical literature uses micro data to estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) of labor supply, a parameter crucial for understanding business-cycle fluctuations in hours …

Martin Shu

This paper asks whether worker self-selection, rather than slow technological progress, can explain the low measured labor productivity growth in the U.S. service sector — a phenomenon known as …

Sushant Acharya · Jess Benhabib

Research question and motivation: A central tenet of monetary policy is that aggressively raising nominal rates more than one-for-one with inflation (the Taylor principle) nips self-fulfilling …

Sjak Smulders · Sophie Zhou

This paper by Smulders and Zhou challenges the standard lock-in narrative for the slow green transition. The conventional explanation — path dependency in directed technical change (DTC) — is hard to …

Loren Brandt · Ruochen Dai · Gueorgui Kambourov · Kjetil Storesletten · Xiaobo Zhang

This paper studies entrepreneurship and new firm creation in China through the lens of serial entrepreneurs (SEs) — individuals who establish more than one firm — contrasting them with non-serial …

Heejeong Kim · Jung Hwan Kim

U.S. outstanding student debt rose roughly 20-fold, from about $50 billion in 1985 to nearly $1 trillion in 2014 (about 7% of GDP), making it the second-largest form of household debt after mortgages.

Sakai Ando · Tamon Asonuma · Prachi Mishra · Alexandre Sollaci

Sovereign debt restructuring is a central tool for countries in debt distress, yet surprisingly little evidence exists on whether it actually reduces the debt-to-GDP ratio — the metric used in …

Esther Ann Bøler · Andreas Moxnes · Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe

Firms that invest heavily in intangible assets — patents, R&D, software — face a structural financing disadvantage: intangibles offer limited collateral value to banks, so intangible-intensive firms …

Hans A. Holter · Serhiy Stepanchuk · Yicheng Wang

This paper investigates how the level and progressivity of personal income taxes shape entrepreneurial activity in the United States, contributing empirical evidence, theoretical intuition, and a …

Robert J Barro · V V Chari

Barro and Chari (2024) revisit the long-standing debate over optimal capital income taxation, unifying the Chamley-Judd zero-tax result, the Straub-Werning positive-tax amendment, and the …

Katrine Jakobsen · Henrik Kleven · Jonas Kolsrud · Camille Landais · Mathilde Muñoz

Proposals to tax top wealth (e.g., Saez and Zucman, 2019) face a recurring objection in public debate: that the wealthy will emigrate en masse and, because many are entrepreneurs, their departure will …

Xavier Cirera · Diego Comin · Marcio Cruz

Research question and motivation: How sophisticated are the technologies establishments actually use, and how close are they to the world frontier? Traditional measures (since Ryan-Gross 1943 and …

Russell Cooper · Ozgen Ozturk

This paper investigates what drives the countercyclical dispersion of TFPR — total factor productivity measured in revenue terms — a pattern that is well documented empirically but poorly understood …

Alessandra Fenizia · Nicholas Li · Luca Citino

This paper studies the cost-effectiveness of targeted payroll tax reductions as a tool for stimulating labor demand among marginalized workers, using a natural experiment from Italy. The motivation is …

Corina Boar · Denis Gorea · Virgiliu Midrigan

Research question and motivation. A large literature argues that credit constraints are the dominant financial friction holding private businesses below their optimal scale, so that easing credit …

Rosemary Kaiser

Many countries, primarily in Europe, apply dismissal protections to permanent employment contracts but not to temporary ones, creating a two-tiered labor market in which younger and less educated …

Jean-Félix Brouillette

Women accounted for only 3% of U.S. inventors in 1976 and still just 14% in 2023, a pace of convergence far slower than in law (3% to 49%) or medicine (6% to 46%) over the same period. Under the …

Hideki Nakamura · Masakatsu Nakamura · Shota Moriwaki

This paper asks a foundational question: can the economy-wide degree of automation be measured coherently from standard macroeconomic data, without relying on technology-specific proxies such as robot …

Eunkyung Lee

Research question and motivation. This paper asks how monetary policy transmits to corporate investment through bank credit, and specifically whether the relevant credit margin is the origination of …

Maximilian Konradt · Giacomo Mangiante

This paper asks whether carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes economic costs that are unequally distributed across European regions, and whether those economic costs …

Thomas Bourany · Jordan Rosenthal-Kay

This paper asks who wins and loses from climate policies — carbon taxes, renewable subsidies, and carbon tariffs — across 193 heterogeneous countries, and by how much. The motivation is that the …

Julián Costas-Fernández · José-Alberto Guerra · Myra Mohnen

This paper asks whether proximity to transport infrastructure can sever the occupational tie between parents and children — a question with direct bearing on the debate over place-based versus …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Kai Carstensen · Stefan Lautenbacher · Manuel Menkhoff · Martin Schneider

A large literature shows that firms perceiving more uncertainty make more cautious intertemporal decisions (investment, hiring, price setting), but it is far less clear what makes firms uncertain in …

Donggyu Lee

This paper asks whether the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies (UMP) — specifically quantitative easing (QE) and forward guidance — exacerbated income and welfare inequality in the …

Horng Chern Wong

Why do some firms pay persistently higher wages for observably similar workers, and what role do firms' product-market power (monopoly/markups), labor-market power (monopsony/markdowns), and workers' …

Sarah Sander

This paper estimates the causal effects of universal daycare access on mothers' labor force participation, full-time employment, hours worked, and earnings across 34 years after the birth of their …

Titan Alon · Damien Capelle · Kazushige Matsuda

This paper proposes that university R&D is determined endogenously by competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education, and asks why universities fund research …

Michael W. L. Elsby · Axel Gottfries · Pawel Krolikowski · Gary Solon

This paper develops a tractable theoretical model of wage dynamics in long-term employment relationships, situated between two polar extremes in the existing literature: continual Nash renegotiation …

Maria Alsina-Pujols

This paper asks how the threat of forced climate migration — international displacement driven by climate-induced natural disasters — should alter optimal carbon taxation. The motivation is twofold.

Drago Bergholt · Fabio Canova · Francesco Furlanetto · Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli · Pål Ulvedal

The paper addresses what drove the post-COVID inflation surge in the United States and internationally. Before answering the substantive question, the authors identify and diagnose a methodological …

Jung Sakong

Wealth in the US is far more concentrated than income, even among the bottom 99%. In 2013, the next-49% (above the bottom 50%) earned 4.7 times the income of the bottom 50% but held 6.5 times the net …

Melanie Wallskog · Nicholas Bloom · Scott Ohlmacher · Cristina Tello-Trillo

This paper investigates how within-firm pay inequality relates to firm-level labor productivity, using a novel linkage of three confidential U.S. Census Bureau datasets covering millions of workers at …

Juan J Dolado · Etienne Lalé · Hélène Turon

Dolado, Lalé, and Turon build a structural equilibrium model of the U.K. low-wage labour market to evaluate zero-hours contracts (ZHCs), employment agreements under which firms are not required to …

Behzad Diba · Olivier Loisel

Since 2008 the US economy has gone through two zero-lower-bound (ZLB) episodes (Dec 2008–Dec 2015 and Mar 2020–Mar 2022). Standard New Keynesian (NK) and monetarist models struggle with three broad …

Peter Bednarek · Valeriya Dinger · Alison Schultz · Natalja von Westernhagen

Can banks effectively monitor their peers under asymmetric information? Effective peer monitoring matters for functioning interbank markets and, by implication, financial markets and the transmission …

Philippe Bacchetta · Elena Perazzi

As central banks worldwide explore retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), the macroeconomic consequences depend heavily on how CBDC interacts with bank deposits. Prior work spans a wide range of …

Chadwick Curtis · Julio Garín · Robert Lester

The paper asks whether population aging flattens the Phillips curve through a previously unexplored channel — age-related differences in the elasticity of substitution across product varieties. …

Yang Han · Jun Ma

This paper proposes a shadow rate no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model (SDTSM) with drifting trends to estimate the long-run trend of the real interest rate using yield curve data from the U.S., …

Christiaan van der Kwaak · Sweder van Wijnbergen

Does fiscal stimulus still work when it is financed through a banking system that is undercapitalized and holds large quantities of risky domestic government bonds? This was a first-order policy …

Ryuichiro Izumi · Yang Li

Research question and motivation: Asset fire sales were a defining feature of the 2007-08 crisis, and post-crisis reforms (Basel III liquidity requirements, Money Market Mutual Fund reforms) were …

Hiona Balfoussia · Harris Dellas · Dimitris Papageorgiou

This paper studies a transmission channel from sovereign fiscal weakness to banking performance that the literature has largely overlooked: government-provided deposit insurance, rather than banks' …

Luís A.V. Catão · Jan Ditzen · Daniel Marcel te Kaat

The paper asks how far global factors drive the foreign-borrowing component of advanced-economy banks' non-core funding, and whether exchange rate flexibility (and macroprudential policy) can insulate …

Marc Folch · Luca Mazzone

Folch and Mazzone ask how undergraduate student debt shapes three intertwined post-college decisions — whether to pursue a post-bachelor (graduate) degree, the trajectory of earnings, and whether/when …

Daan Opschoor · Dick van Dijk · Philip Hans Franses

Research question and motivation. Since the Great Recession, quantifying downside risks to economic activity (rather than only expected outcomes) has become central for policymakers and investors.

Can Xu · Andreas Steiner

Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and why the type of employment — specifically public-sector employment — affects household saving rates in China. This matters because Chinese …

Gene Ambrocio

Macro-uncertainty is widely believed to depress activity, but existing measures are tied to financial markets, professional forecasters, or economic policy, while a key transmission channel runs …

Antoine L. Noël · Hongfei Sun

Noël and Sun build an information-based theory of capital structure designed to explain the diversity of observed firm financing behavior and the coexistence of distinct optimal financial contracts. …

Rafael Gerke · Sebastian Giesen · Daniel Kienzler

This paper revisits the "reversal puzzle" — the counterintuitive result, first documented by Carlstrom, Fuerst and Paustian (CFP, 2015), that in standard New Keynesian models the effect of forward …

Charles M. Kahn · David Marshall · Robert L. McDonald

This paper develops a theoretical model to explain why financial markets can suffer self-fulfilling liquidity crises and how a central bank acting as a "market-maker of last resort" (MMLR) can …

Cecilia Dassatti · Rodrigo Lluberas · Francesc Rodriguez-Tous

Research question and motivation. Banks reluctant to recognize losses on troubled borrowers engage in "loan evergreening"—rolling over or extending credit to delay loss recognition.

Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo · Iván Payá

There is now broad consensus that monetary authorities should hold a financial-stability mandate and that macroprudential policy should be part of it, yet evidence on the macroeconomic effectiveness …

Rodrigo Barbone Gonzalez · João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso · Bernardus Ferdinandus Nazar Van Doornik

Reserve requirements (RRs) were largely abandoned as a monetary tool in advanced economies after inflation targeting, but emerging markets (EMs) — especially Brazil — kept using them countercyclically …

David Berger · Thomas Hasenzagl · Kyle Herkenhoff · Simon Mongey · Eric A. Posner

Antitrust review of mergers has historically focused almost entirely on harm to consumers (product-market monopoly), ignoring harm to workers (labor-market monopsony). Following the July 2021 White …

Hidehiko Matsumoto

Emerging economies have rapidly accumulated foreign-currency (mostly dollar) debt — the dollar share of 14 emerging economies' foreign debt rose from 75% in 2010 to 81% in 2018. Such debt is dangerous …

Richard Dennis · Oleg Kirsanov

Experimental and survey evidence robustly documents "present bias" — people are more impatient over the short run than the long run, producing preference reversals inconsistent with standard …

Matthias Gnewuch · Donghai Zhang

Research question and motivation. Investment is a sizable and the most volatile component of aggregate GDP, so understanding the investment channel of monetary policy matters for policymakers.

Michael Smolyansky · Gustavo Suarez

When the Federal Reserve unexpectedly tightens policy, do riskier assets fall relative to safer ones (the standard prediction), or do investors read tightening as a signal that fundamentals are …

Meltem Chadwick · Rennae Cherry · Jaqueson K. Galimberti

Inflation expectations measured from household surveys are central inputs to monetary policy, but roughly half of respondents to the RBNZ Household Inflation Expectations survey decline to answer the …

Christoph Hambel · Frederick van der Ploeg

Research question and motivation: Central bankers, regulators, and investors increasingly worry about climate "transition risks" — abrupt shifts in climate policy, green technology breakthroughs, or …

Takao Asano · Yusuke Osaki

How much to save is a central household financial decision, and uncertainty drives the "precautionary saving motive." The precautionary-saving literature has mostly studied one-dimensional …

Thorsten Beck · Peter Bednarek · Daniel te Kaat · Natalja von Westernhagen

The paper asks how exchange rate movements affect the real economy and what role the banking system's foreign-asset exposure plays in transmitting exchange rate shocks. The motivation is concrete: …

Jay Hyun · Ziho Park · Vladimir Smirnyagin

This paper documents a novel channel through which trade shocks propagate across industries: the internal networks of U.S. multisector firms (the working paper circulated as "Import Competition and …

Jasmina Hasanhodzic · Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Hasanhodzic and Kotlikoff ask a question prior work assumed away: how large is generational risk, and can pay-go Social Security actually mitigate it? Earlier studies (Diamond, Bohn, Krueger-Kubler, …

Sebastian Graves · Victoria Gregory · Lars Ljungqvist · Thomas J. Sargent

How does endogenizing retirement (career-length) choice change the labor-supply and human-capital implications of the canonical Heckman, Lochner, and Taber (1998a, HLT) life-cycle general-equilibrium …

Agustín Bénétrix · Michael Curran

How does country-specific uncertainty explain variation in the cross-border funding of banks? Studying this link is practically relevant given rising reliance on international borrowing under …

Pasqualina Arca · Gianfranco Atzeni · Luca G. Deidda

Research question and motivation: Under U.S. Chapter 7 bankruptcy, an individual entrepreneur has most unsecured debt discharged and only her non-exempt assets liquidated, producing an "insurance …

Masami Imai · Michiru Sawada

Why do financial crises leave such deep and protracted economic wounds, with crisis-stricken economies failing to revert to pre-crisis growth trends even a decade later? Imai and Sawada test one …

Carlo Altavilla · Refet S. Gürkaynak · Rogier Quaedvlieg

This paper establishes basic facts about the external finance premium (EFP) faced by euro area firms borrowing from banks, and studies how monetary policy is transmitted to it. The EFP — the extra …

Justine Guillochon

Research question and motivation: The paper asks whether and which television news topics shape French households' one-year-ahead macroeconomic expectations (inflation, unemployment, economic …

Ricardo Duque Gabriel

Research question and motivation. Public procurement accounts for roughly one-third of government spending (12.6% of GDP and 30% of total government expenditures in OECD countries in 2019).

Marius Clemens · Stefan Gebauer · Tobias König

Research question and motivation: The first two pillars of the European Banking Union (single supervision and single resolution) are in place, but the third pillar — a European deposit insurance …

Filippo Pallotti · Gonzalo Paz-Pardo · Jiri Slacalek · Oreste Tristani · Giovanni L. Violante

This paper measures the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the 2021-2023 inflation surge across households in the four largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain). …

Ilyana Kuziemko · Nicolas Longuet-Marx · Suresh Naidu

Why have less-educated voters in the United States abandoned the Democratic Party over recent decades? The paper argues that the Democratic Party's evolution on economic policy — specifically its …

Thomas J. Sargent · Neil Wallace

This paper studies, within a simple "ad hoc" macroeconomic model not derived from individuals' and firms' optimizing behavior but built to resemble the macroeconometric models of the time, how the …

Ana Costa-Ramón · Michaela Slotwinski · Ursina Schaede · Anne Ardila Brenøe

This paper investigates whether information constraints — rather than fully forward-looking choices — contribute to mothers' reduced labor supply after childbirth, a key driver of gender inequality. …

John H. Cochrane

Commenting on Christina and David Romer's claim that active Federal Reserve policy ended postwar recessions, Cochrane argues that their historical narrative cannot distinguish a Fed that reacts to …

Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Pascal Kieren · Stefan Trautmann

Standard survey-based measurement of inflation expectations relies on density forecasts in which respondents assign probabilities to pre-specified inflation bins; this method has been found to induce …

Pedro Bordalo · Nicola Gennaioli · Giacomo Lanzani · Andrei Shleifer

Bordalo, Gennaioli, Lanzani, and Shleifer develop a cognitive theory of choice in which a decision maker's attention to the features of options is determined by her categorization of the current …

Suman Basu · Emine Boz · Gita Gopinath · Francisco Roch · Filiz Unsal

Prepared as background for the IMF's Integrated Policy Framework, this paper builds a three-period small open economy in which monetary policy, capital inflow controls, sterilized foreign exchange …

N. Gregory Mankiw · David Romer · David N. Weil

This 1992 Quarterly Journal of Economics paper by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil tests whether Robert Solow's (1956) neoclassical growth model, augmented to include accumulation of human as well as physical …

Robert M. Solow

Robert Solow's 1956 paper argues that the Harrod-Domar model's famous conclusion -- that steady economic growth is only ever balanced on a "knife-edge," liable to tip into growing unemployment or …

John H. Cochrane

Cochrane asks whether U.S. postwar inflation can be understood using a "frictionless" fiscal theory of the price level -- in which the price level is pinned down by the government's intertemporal …

James Tobin

This 1969 paper by James Tobin, published in the inaugural issue of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, sets out a general-equilibrium framework for monetary analysis built around the capital …

Atif Mian · Ludwig Straub · Amir Sufi

This paper develops a tractable continuous-time model to study the fiscal sustainability of government deficits and the joint dynamics of public debt, with two main ingredients: an endogenous interest …

Zhengyang Chen · Victor J. Valcarcel

This 2024 Macroeconomic Dynamics paper by Zhengyang Chen and Victor J. Valcarcel asks whether the long-documented instability of U.S.

Volha Audzei · Ivan Sutóris

Audzei and Sutóris ask whether inflation-targeting monetary policy affects households' incentives to invest in energy conservation, and whether the standard central bank response to energy price …

Dominik Boddin · Daniel Marcel te Kaat · Chang Ma · Alessandro Rebucci

This paper identifies and quantifies a housing portfolio channel of quantitative easing (QE) transmission that operates through household portfolio rebalancing toward second homes (as opposed to the …

Markus K. Brunnermeier · Yuliy Sannikov

This paper solves the full, global equilibrium dynamics (not just a linearization around the steady state) of an economy in which financially constrained "experts" intermediate capital, showing that …

F. P. Ramsey

Frank Ramsey's 1928 paper asks how much of its income a nation ought to save, and derives a rule -- that the rate of saving times the marginal utility of consumption should equal the gap between …

Thomas Winberry

A method for solving heterogeneous-agent models with aggregate shocks that replaces the infinite-dimensional distribution with a flexible parametric family, treats that family's moments as endogenous …

Jorge Miranda-Pinto · Daniel Murphy · Kieran James Walsh · Eric R. Young

A common observation from account-level bank data is that low-income, low-liquidity households often use additional income to repay debt rather than consume, and that household-level consumption is …

John W. Keating · Logan J. Kelly · A. Lee Smith · Victor J. Valcarcel

This 2019 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking paper by John Keating, Logan Kelly, A. Lee Smith, and Victor Valcarcel asks whether replacing the federal funds rate with Divisia M4 (DM4) -- a …

Davide Viviano · Kaspar Wüthrich · Paul Niehaus

This paper develops an economic framework for determining when and how much multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) adjustment is warranted in research settings. The research question is: under what …

Zhiguo He · Arvind Krishnamurthy · Konstantin Milbradt

What makes a sovereign bond a safe asset is not the strength of its fundamentals in absolute terms but their strength relative to the alternatives, together with the size of the debt outstanding -- …

Maryam Farboodi · Laura Veldkamp

The paper builds a tractable dynamic general-equilibrium model in which data is information that firms accumulate to forecast a moving target, is generated as a by-product of production, is tradeable …

Marco Bassetto · David S Miller

Why do sudden inflations and currency crises occur, while symmetric sudden deflations never do? The paper asks whether treating nominal government bonds as analogous to ordinary corporate bonds — with …

Luca Benati

Building on the finding that the velocity of M1 is, to a close approximation, the permanent component of short-term nominal interest rates, this paper proposes estimating the natural rate of interest …

Gary Koop · Dimitris Korobilis

This 2014 European Economic Review paper by Gary Koop and Dimitris Korobilis develops a time-varying-parameter factor-augmented VAR (TVP-FAVAR) with dynamic model averaging (DMA) to construct a …

Christina D. Romer · David H. Romer

This 2004 American Economic Review paper by Christina D. Romer and David H.

Anmol Bhandari · Thomas Bourany · David Evans · Mikhail Golosov

This paper reformulates perturbation approximation of heterogeneous-agent models as the problem of finding directional derivatives that solve small, analytically-characterized linear systems -- a …

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Walker Ray · Dimitri Vayanos

The paper develops a two-country preferred-habitat model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles — currency traders with price-elastic demand for foreign …

Tobias Adrian · Christopher Erceg · Marcin Kolasa · Jesper Lindé · Pawel Zabczyk

A microfounded two-country New Keynesian model, calibrated separately to a representative emerging market and a representative advanced economy, in which limited FX-market risk-bearing capacity and an …

Tobias Adrian · Christopher Erceg · Jesper Lindé · Pawel Zabczyk · Jianping Zhou

An empirically-oriented New Keynesian small open economy model, of the kind central banks use, built to quantify when foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management tools improve monetary …

Michael T. Belongia · Peter N. Ireland

This 2022 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Michael Belongia and Peter Ireland asks whether a policy rule that steers the growth rate of money, rather than the short-term nominal …

Maurice Allais

This 1966 American Economic Review paper by Maurice Allais asks whether the quantity theory of money can be given a single operational formulation that holds uniformly across normal times and …

Daniel J Lewis · Karel Mertens

This paper develops a test for instrument strength based on the bias of two-stage least squares (2SLS) that: (1) generalizes the Stock-Yogo (2005) and Sanderson-Windmeijer (2016) tests to be robust to …

Marco J. Lombardi · Feng Zhu

This 2018 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Marco J. Lombardi and Feng Zhu proposes a "shadow policy rate" for U.S.

Régis Barnichon · Geert Mesters

This 2023 American Economic Review paper by Régis Barnichon and Geert Mesters develops a theoretical framework, with an empirical application to U.S. monetary policy, for evaluating whether current …

Allen N. Berger · Onesime Epouhe · Raluca A. Roman

This paper examines the effects of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP)—two government bailout programs during the Global Financial Crisis and the …

Rüdiger Bachmann · Benjamin Born · Olga Goldfayn-Frank · Georgi Kocharkov · Ralph Luetticke · Michael Weber

The paper studies Germany's temporary 3 percentage-point VAT cut from July 1 to December 31, 2020 (standard rate 19%→16%, reduced rate 7%→5%), combining two causal identification strategies with …

Emmanuel Farhi · Iván Werning

This paper builds a theory of macroprudential policy whose only friction is nominal rigidity in goods and labor markets, possibly combined with a constraint on monetary policy such as the zero lower …

Joel P. Flynn · George Nikolakoudis · Karthik A. Sastry

Modern macroeconomic models of aggregate supply universally restrict firms to price-setting — committing to a price and supplying whatever quantity the market demands. Flynn, Nikolakoudis, and Sastry …

Daria Finocchiaro · Philippe Weil

Finocchiaro and Weil ask whether financial development necessarily promotes long-run economic growth, or whether congestion externalities in R&D markets can offset — and even reverse — the growth …

Robert W. Hahn · Nathaniel Hendren · Robert D. Metcalfe · Ben Sprung-Keyser

This paper extends and applies the marginal value of public funds (MVPF) framework to evaluate the welfare consequences of 96 climate-related tax and spending policies in the United States. The MVPF …

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde · Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez · Thomas J. Sargent · Mark W. Watson

This 2007 American Economic Review paper by Fernández-Villaverde, Rubio-Ramírez, Sargent, and Watson asks when the structural economic shocks in a DSGE model's state-space representation can be …

Gaurav Khanna · Emir Murathanoglu · Caroline Theoharides · Dean Yang

This paper asks how persistent increases in international migrant income prospects affect long-run economic development in migrant-origin areas. The central question is whether Philippine provinces …

Jonas Hjort · Xuan Li · Heather Sarsons

Many multinationals do not fully adjust wages to the local context of their foreign establishments; instead, they partially link the wages of foreign workers in a given position to the wages paid in …

Karl M. Aspelund · Anna Russo

This paper investigates the problem of additionality — the likelihood that a conservation action is marginal to (i.e., caused by) an incentive — in the United States Department of Agriculture's …

Jess Benhabib · Feng Dong · Pengfei Wang · Zhenyang Xu

Why do corporate defaults cluster in recurring episodes rather than occurring smoothly? The paper asks whether observable fundamental factors — firm characteristics and macroeconomic variables — are …

Mathieu Pedemonte · Hiroshi Toma · Esteban Verdugo

Consumers' inflation expectations are heterogeneous across birth cohorts and history-dependent: using panel data from the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), the paper documents that each cohort's …

Marco Errico · Danial Lashkari

Errico and Lashkari address two intertwined problems in the measurement of aggregate price indices: how to account for quality change and variety entry/exit when the demand system is not CES, and how …

Sebastian Di Tella · Benjamin Hébert · Pablo Kurlat

Building on the Kaplan-Violante two-account incomplete-markets model, this manuscript shows that once idiosyncratic risk is assumed to rise when asset valuations fall, the aggregate value of each …

Boyan Jovanovic · Peter L. Rousseau

AI can improve decisions, raise firm productivity, and accelerate human capital growth through its effect on signal quality in problem-solving tasks, but the consequences are heterogeneous across the …

Andrea Matranga · Timur Natkhov

This paper investigates the origins of serfdom in early modern Russia, arguing that the institution consolidated primarily through political economy dynamics between the crown and a landholding …

Paolo Giordani

This 2004 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Paolo Giordani offers an analytical and empirical alternative to the Sims (1992) forward-looking-information explanation of the "price puzzle" — the …

Christian Bayer · Ralph Luetticke · M. Weiss · Yannik Winkelmann

This paper introduces the Distributional Endogenous Gridpoint Method (DEGM), a novel numerical technique for solving the distributional dynamics that arise in heterogeneous agent macroeconomic models. …

Eric Chyn · Diego Daruich

How should governments design neighborhood-based policies to improve long-run outcomes for children, once one accounts for general equilibrium (GE) forces—endogenous rents, neighborhood quality, …

Frank Smets · Raf Wouters

A sticky-price, sticky-wage dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area, with habit formation, investment adjustment costs and variable capacity utilisation, is estimated by Bayesian methods on …

Paul A. Samuelson

This 1958 Journal of Political Economy paper by Paul Samuelson builds a deliberately stripped-down model of a world in which goods cannot be stored or invested -- nothing "keeps" -- so people can only …

Luca Gagliardone · Mark Gertler · Simone Lenzu · Joris Tielens

This paper addresses a fundamental puzzle in macroeconomics: why do estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) slope differ sharply depending on whether real marginal cost or the output gap …

Paulo Maio

This paper derives a three-factor consumption model that adds news about long-run consumption growth and news about long-run consumption variance to the baseline Consumption CAPM, and tests it on a …

Robert J. Barro

This 1974 Journal of Political Economy paper by Robert Barro asks whether an increase in government bonds raises households' perceived net wealth, and argues that within an overlapping-generations …

Felipe Del Canto · John Grigsby · Eric Qian · Conor Walsh

The paper asks whether inflationary shocks are regressive, and demonstrates that the answer depends critically on the source of the shock. A single aggregate inflation statistic conceals radically …

Olivier Coibion

This 2012 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Olivier Coibion asks why standard recursive VARs and the Romer-Romer (2004) narrative approach produce such different estimates of the real …

Ping Wang · Tsz-Nga Wong

Wang and Wong develop a continuous-time labor-search model to assess the dynamic effects of generative AI (GenAI) on labor productivity and unemployment. The paper is motivated by conflicting …

Jean Boivin · Marc Giannoni

This 2002 FRBNY Economic Policy Review paper by Jean Boivin and Marc Giannoni asks whether the transmission of monetary policy shocks to U.S. output and inflation changed after the early 1980s, and if …

Robert E. Lucas Jr.

This 1978 Econometrica paper by Robert E. Lucas, Jr. builds a theoretical model of a one-good, pure-exchange economy with identical consumers and a fixed number of stochastically productive units, in …

Andrew B. Abel

A one-parameter-family utility function nests time-separable preferences, "catching up with the Joneses" (utility depends on own consumption relative to lagged aggregate consumption per capita) and …

Stephan Lauermann · Asher Wolinsky

This paper develops an auction model that jointly incorporates three frictions pervading informal price-formation processes: (1) costly recruitment by the seller, (2) costly participation by bidders, …

Vitaly M. Bord · Agnes Kovacs · Patrick Moran

Should regulators restrict banks from proactively raising credit card limits using machine-learning algorithms, and if so, how? The paper asks: to what extent are bank-initiated credit limit increases …

Daron Acemoglu · Pascual Restrepo

Acemoglu and Restrepo examine the effects of automation in economies where labor market distortions cause some workers to earn rents—wages above their opportunity cost or outside option. The central …

Jess Benhabib · Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé · Martín Uribe

Because a Taylor-type interest-rate rule must be consistent with the zero nominal-interest-rate bound, it always admits a second, unintended steady state with low or negative inflation alongside the …

Cooper Howes · Gregory Weitzner

Banks produce private information about borrowers that is inherently unobservable to outside researchers. Howes and Weitzner ask whether the quality of this private information is countercyclical — …

Wouter J. den Haan · Steven W. Sumner · Guy M. Yamashiro

This 2007 Journal of Monetary Economics paper by Wouter den Haan, Steven Sumner, and Guy Yamashiro asks whether the three main categories of U.S. bank loans -- commercial and industrial (C&I), real …

Sang Rae Kim

This paper studies when a bank is more effective as a supplier of privately produced money-like safe assets (repo, commercial paper), finding that a bank produces safer, more liquid assets when (1) …

Douglas W. Diamond · Philip H. Dybvig

A three-period model in which households face a privately observed, uninsurable risk of needing to consume early, and where a demand deposit contract lets banks share that risk better than any market …

David Rivero · Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal

This paper demonstrates that the canonical efficiency result of Diamond and Dybvig (1983) — that banks using maturity transformation can decentralize the first-best risk-sharing allocation — breaks …

Gita Gopinath · Jeremy C Stein

A currency's role as the unit of account in which trade is invoiced and its role as a safe store of value reinforce each other, because households who buy dollar-priced imports want dollar-denominated …

Sydnee Caldwell · Ingrid Haegele · Jörg Heining

How prevalent is individual wage bargaining in the labor market, what determines firms' bargaining strategies, how do bargaining encounters unfold for workers, and does heterogeneity in bargaining …

Bruno Pellegrino · Enrico Spolaore · Romain Wacziarg

Why do observed international investment positions and cross-country differences in rates of return to capital fail to conform to a frictionless capital-market benchmark? The paper asks how large the …

Greta Meggiorini · Fabio Milani

The Behavioral New Keynesian model fixes the forward guidance puzzle by making agents myopic: "cognitive discounting", in Gabaix's (2014, 2016, 2020) formulation, shrinks expectations of distant …

Dmitry Taubinsky · Luigi Butera · Matteo Saccarola · Chen Lian

Linking the monthly Danish Consumer Expectations Survey to the Danish administrative registry, this paper shows that households' inflation forecasts move strongly and negatively with their own recent …

Merike Kukk · Jan Toczynski · Christoph Basten

Households are exposed to different rates of inflation because they buy different things, and using anonymised quarterly bank-account records for 89,507 individuals at one of Estonia's leading …

Almut Balleer · Georg Duernecker · Susanne Forstner · Johannes Goensch

The paper asks two questions: (1) How do workers' biased expectations about job finding and job separation shape the labor market equilibrium and wages? (2) Are differences in expectation biases …

Elliot Anenberg · Tess Scharlemann · Eileen van Straelen

Does monetary policy stimulate household borrowing and consumption by enabling cash-out mortgage refinancing ("the cash-out refinance channel"), or does it primarily induce substitution across …

Ariel T Burstein · Vasco M Carvalho · Basile Grassi

The paper asks how firm-level, sector-level, and aggregate markups comove with output at different levels of aggregation, and whether a single structural model can reconcile seemingly contradictory …

Alfred Wong · Jiayue Zhang

Cross-currency basis swap spreads are widely read as a post-crisis anomaly in which covered interest parity has broken down; this paper argues the opposite -- that a swap dealer who priced a …

Anna Tompsett

This paper measures the causal effects of land transport infrastructure on economic activity, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in bridge construction over the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers in the …

Minsu Chang · Hanbaek Lee

This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment, specifically by incorporating firm-level investment decisions — a dimension absent from prior literature. The central …

Christopher D. Carroll

This paper argues that once consumers face meaningful, uninsurable income risk and are "impatient," they behave as buffer-stock savers who hold a target wealth-to-income ratio and whose average …

Gorkem Bostanci · Guillermo Ordoñez

The paper studies how the two roles of stock markets — revealing information about firms' fundamentals, which guides capital allocation, and providing liquidity — interact, arguing that when stocks …

George-Marios Angeletos · Chen Lian · Christian K. Wolf

The paper asks whether a government can run a deficit today — issuing "stimulus checks" — and allow debt to return to its initial level without any future tax hike or spending cut. In environments …

Valerie A. Ramey

Surveying theory, aggregate U.S. time-series evidence, and the newer cross-state/cross-locality literature on the government-spending multiplier, Ramey concludes that the multiplier for a temporary, …

Farid Farrokhi · Ahmad Lashkaripour

Farrokhi and Lashkaripour (2025) study the interaction between trade policy and climate change. The central research question is whether and how countries can use trade policy — specifically import …

Robert M. Anderson · Haosui Duanmu

Anderson and Duanmu (2025) ask how general equilibrium (GE) interactions — factor reallocation across sectors, capital misallocation under climate uncertainty, and the distributional incidence of …

Peter Blair Henry

The literature's standard finding -- that countries with open capital accounts do not grow faster -- tests a prediction the neoclassical growth model never makes, because in that model liberalization …

Kristin J. Forbes · Francis E. Warnock

Dating extreme capital-flow episodes from gross rather than net flows splits the picture in two -- "surges" and "stops" driven by foreign investors, "flight" and "retrenchment" driven by domestic …

Valentina Bruno · Hyun Song Shin

Bank leverage is the linchpin of a risk-taking channel through which monetary policy travels across borders: in a pre-crisis quarterly VAR a tighter US policy rate raises the VIX, lowers broker-dealer …

Anusha Chari · Karlye Dilts Stedman · Christian Lundblad

Shifts in global risk appetite move not just the middle of the emerging-market capital-flow and return distributions but their left tails, and usually the left tail more. Estimating panel quantile …

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Olivier Jeanne

The textbook neoclassical growth model says countries whose productivity is catching up should invest more and import more capital. Across 68 developing countries over 1980-2000 the cross-country …

Kevin X.D. Huang · Qinglai Meng · Jianpo Xue

This paper overturns the longstanding consensus established by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (1997) that relying on capital income tax adjustments to balance the government budget immunizes the economy …

R. A. Mundell

This 1963 Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science paper by Robert Mundell asks what happens to monetary and fiscal policy's power over domestic income and employment once capital is …

Pablo Ottonello

Physical capital, like labour, can be "unemployed" — sitting idle while its owner searches for a buyer or tenant — and this paper documents that in the United States such idle capital is large, …

Federico Apicella · Andrea Fabiani

Using the November 2017 EU Emissions Trading System reform, which pushed permit prices from about 5 to 20 euros per tonne, and loan-level data from the Italian Credit Registry, this paper asks whether …

Francesco Lippi · Elia Moracci

Lippi and Moracci (2026) ask how euro area households choose between cash and card payments, and whether existing theoretical models can explain observed behavior. They draw on ECB payment diary …

Matti Liski · François Salanié

This paper develops a general model of experimentation under catastrophe risk in which the catastrophe is triggered when a stock variable exceeds an unknown threshold, but occurs only after a …

Michael Ehrmann · Phillipp Gnan · Kilian Rieder

This paper investigates the economics of monetary policy leaks — anonymous disclosures of confidential information by insiders to the media — focusing on three central questions: (1) Are leaks random …

Hanfeng Chen · Maria Elena Filippin

The paper analyzes the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) that competes with commercial bank deposits for household liquidity, in a model where banks must post …

Benjamín García · Arsenios Skaperdas

This paper constructs a new measure of political pressure on the Federal Reserve from textual analysis of Fed Chairs' testimonies at Humphrey-Hawkins congressional hearings, and documents that the use …

Manuel Amador · Christopher Phelan

How does noise in the mapping from central bank actions to realized inflation affect the existence and character of reputational equilibria in monetary policy? Specifically, can a central bank that …

Marvin Goodfriend

Classifying Federal Reserve crisis-era interventions into monetary policy, credit policy, and interest-on-reserves policy, Goodfriend argues that only "Treasuries only" monetary policy is fiscally …

Raj Chetty · Will Dobbie · Benjamin Goldman · Sonya R Porter · Crystal S Yang

This paper documents sharp divergent trends in intergenerational economic mobility by race and class in the United States across the 1978 to 1992 birth cohorts, and investigates the causal mechanisms …

Ben S. Bernanke · Mark Gertler · Simon Gilchrist

Embedding a costly-state-verification debt contract -- in which a borrower's external finance premium depends inversely on net worth -- into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model, this chapter …

Maurice Obstfeld · Kenneth Rogoff

The intertemporal approach treats the current account as the outcome of forward-looking saving and investment decisions rather than as a function of relative prices, and this chapter develops it from …

Paola Manzini · Marco Mariotti · Levent Ülkü

This paper develops a unified choice-theoretic framework in which agents evaluate alternatives not in isolation but relative to their opportunity costs — the alternatives they forgo. The central …

Wenxin Du · Jesse Schreger

A Handbook chapter reviewing the breakdown of covered interest rate parity during the Global Financial Crisis and its persistence through the following decade -- how the cross-currency basis is …

Giorgio Chiovelli · Stelios Michalopoulos · Elias Papaioannou · Sandra Sequeira

This paper examines the impact of conflict-driven forced displacement on human capital accumulation using the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992) as the empirical setting. During this war, over four …

Francesco Giovanardi · Matthias Kaldorf

This paper asks two related questions about the intersection of climate policy and bank capital regulation. First, can differentiated bank capital requirements — imposing higher equity charges on …

Barbara Annicchiarico · Marco Carli · Francesca Diluiso

This paper embeds a carbon pricing sector into an extended DSGE model with a financial accelerator (E-DSGE) featuring heterogeneous firms, bank monitoring, and a borrowing-constraint amplification …

Abhay Aneja · Silvia Farina · Guo Xu

This paper asks whether exposure to greater female representation in the workplace can persistently reduce intergenerational gender gaps in labor market outcomes. The authors exploit the sudden, …

Alexander M Jakobsen

This paper introduces and axiomatically characterizes Coarse Bayesian updating, a generalization of Bayes' rule designed to accommodate the wide empirical evidence that individuals systematically …

Takuo Sugaya · Alexander Wolitzky

This paper asks how a third-party intermediary (an "algorithm") that observes market demand or costs superior to competing firms should optimally disclose that information to maximize the firms' …

Ngoc-Sang Pham · Alexis Akira Toda

Tirole (1985) studied an overlapping generations model with capital accumulation and showed that the emergence of asset bubbles can resolve the capital over-accumulation problem when the economy is …

J. Carter Braxton

This comment, written by J. Carter Braxton (University of Wisconsin), discusses the paper "Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment" by Wang and Wong (2025), which develops and …

Miao Ben Zhang

This paper is a published comment by Miao Ben Zhang (USC Marshall School of Business) on Mihet, Rishabh, and Gomes (2025), "Is It AI or Data That Drives Market Power?" Zhang identifies three …

John H. Cochrane

Discussing Christina and David Romer's "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks," Cochrane argues the paper's key innovation -- that Greenbook forecasts are a sufficient statistic for the Fed's information …

Christoph Grosse-Steffen · Laura Pagenhardt · Malte Rieth

A central debate in fiscal policy is whether fiscal rules—numerical constraints on budget deficits or debt levels—impair a government's ability to respond to adverse economic shocks, creating a …

Hanno Lustig · Nikolai Roussanov · Adrien Verdelhan

Sorting currencies into six portfolios by their forward discounts, this paper shows that a single return-based factor -- the return on the highest minus the return on the lowest interest rate currency …

Felipe Gonçalves · Elisa Jácome · Emily Weisburst

This paper studies how immigration enforcement affects public safety, asking two questions: (1) what is the effect of increased enforcement on criminal victimization, and (2) how does increased …

Marco Cosconati · Yi Xin · Fan Wu · Yizhou Jin

This paper studies imperfect competition in selection markets where competing firms have heterogeneous information about consumers — a layer of asymmetry distinct from the classic buyer-seller …

Ippei Fujiwara · Kiminori Matsuyama

Fujiwara and Matsuyama ask whether the well-documented flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) and the concurrent rise in market concentration and markup rates are causally linked or …

Walter Beckert · Howard Smith · Yuya Takahashi

How does individually negotiated pricing — where buyers make discrete choices among differentiated products and negotiate transaction-specific prices — affect market power and merger effects in …

Ilwoo Hwang · Kyungmin Kim · Raphael Boleslavsky

Hwang, Kim, and Boleslavsky study how firms in an oligopoly simultaneously choose prices and advertising strategies, where advertising is modeled as the choice of how much product information to …

Fernando Alvarez · Katarína Borovičková · Robert Shimer

This paper asks two related questions. First, can one develop a robust, distribution-free estimator for the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with unobserved …

Kristine W. Hankins · Morteza Momeni · David Sovich

Do import tariffs affect consumer credit terms, and does focusing solely on goods prices understate tariff pass-through to consumers? The paper also asks whether vertical integration -- specifically, …

Emil Holst Partsch · Ivan Petrella · Emiliano Santoro

Consumer durables account for a disproportionately large share of household expenditure fluctuations despite their small share of total private consumption. Two stylized facts motivate the paper: (1) …

David K. Backus · Gregor W. Smith

Nontraded goods had been invoked to explain several international puzzles at once -- persistent deviations from purchasing power parity, low cross-country consumption correlations, and real interest …

Andreas Haupt · Zoë Hitzig

Haupt and Hitzig introduce a framework for comparing the privacy properties of different mechanism protocols. The core research question is: when a designer commits to implementing a social choice …

Sara G Castellanos · Diego Jiménez-Hernández · Aprajit Mahajan · Eduardo Alcaraz Prous · Enrique Seira

This paper asks two related questions bearing on financial inclusion policy in developing countries: (1) How effective are credit card contract term changes — specifically interest rate reductions and …

Frank Yang

This paper studies when a principal can improve upon simple one-dimensional mechanisms by also deploying costly nonprice screening instruments — actions that are socially wasteful yet potentially …

Jonathan Payne · Bálint Szőke · George Hall · Thomas J Sargent

This paper constructs a new dataset of US federal bond prices and uses it to estimate the full term structure of yields on gold-denominated US federal debt from 1791 to 1933 — the entire gold standard …

Stig V. Møller · Thomas Q. Pedersen · Sigurd A. M. Steffensen · Martin M. Andreasen

Using the Livingston survey - the longest-running U.S. survey of professional economists, running twice a year since June 1952 - this paper shows that the expected excess stock return implied by these …

Myrto Kalouptsidi · Yuichi Kitamura · Lucas Lima · Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

Discrete choice data identify only differences in agents' utilities, not utility levels. In dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models this means many policy-relevant counterfactuals — those requiring …

Michael B. Devereux · Alan Sutherland

This paper develops a simple, widely applicable approximation method for computing equilibrium country portfolios in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium open-economy macro models -- any number of …

Stefania D'Amico · Iryna Kaminska

Using security-level data on individual corporate bond prices and the Bank of England's published purchase quantities across its gilt purchase programs (QE1: £200bn, QE2: £125bn, QE3: £50bn, QE4: …

Simon Gilchrist · Egon Zakrajšek

This 2012 American Economic Review paper by Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajšek constructs a new corporate-bond credit spread index -- the "GZ spread" -- from a large panel of secondary-market bond …

Andrea Chiavari

This paper asks how rising returns to scale in production contributed to three concurrent U.S. secular trends since 1980: declining business dynamism, rising markups, and growing firm expenditures on …

Marek Ignaszak · Petr Sedláček

This paper asks whether firm-level customer acquisition — distinct from productivity differences — is a quantitatively important driver of aggregate economic growth, and whether ignoring it distorts …

Fabian Gogolin · Ivan Lim · Francesco Vallascas

This paper studies what happens to local banking markets when a small bank suffers a successful cyberattack, using a stacked difference-in-differences design on 16 cyber incidents at small U.S. banks …

Pol Campos-Mercade · Lorenz Goette · Thomas Graeber · Alexandre Kellogg · Charles Sprenger

This paper examines whether heterogeneity in individual gain-loss attitudes — the degree to which people weigh losses more or less severely than equivalent gains — contaminates prior tests of …

Gu Jin · Tao Zhu

This paper applies a multiple-denomination commodity money model — building on Lee, Wallace, and Zhu (2005) — to coinage episodes in late medieval England, and derives two main findings. Shortages of …

Victor Chernozhukov · Kaspar Wüthrich · Yinchu Zhu

Chernozhukov, Wüthrich, and Zhu propose a debiased synthetic control (SC) estimator and an accompanying self-normalized t-test for making inferences on the average treatment effect on the treated …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Chen Qiu · Jörg Stoye

This paper applies classical statistical decision theory (Wald 1950) to treatment choice problems where the data only partially identify payoff-relevant parameters. The policy maker chooses an action …

Marek Jarociński · Peter Karadi

This 2020 American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics paper by Marek Jarociński and Peter Karadi argues that conventional high-frequency-identified monetary policy surprises conflate two economically …

Morten O. Ravn · Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé · Martín Uribe

If households form habits over individual goods rather than over a consumption aggregate, the demand a firm faces depends on its own past sales, its pricing problem becomes dynamic, and mark-ups turn …

Jiequn Han · Yucheng Yang · Weinan E

DeepHAM represents the distribution of agents through a small set of algorithmically-learned "generalized moments" and uses deep neural networks trained on directly simulated paths to globally solve …

Taha Choukhmane

Does automatic enrollment (auto-enrollment) in retirement savings plans increase lifetime wealth accumulation and welfare? The prior literature established large short-run participation effects but …

Cristina Arellano

In a small open economy where a risk-averse government borrows from risk-neutral lenders using only non-contingent one-period bonds, default happens in equilibrium and happens in *recessions* -- the …

Amanda Dahlstrand

This paper asks whether digital platforms can improve healthcare outcomes by enabling needs-based matching between patients and physicians unconstrained by geography. Amanda Dahlstrand studies digital …

Nikhil Agarwal · Paulo Somaini

Agarwal and Somaini study demand estimation in markets where consumers face latent choice constraints — situations where a consumer's effective choice set is determined not only by her preferences but …

Alan J Auerbach · Yuriy Gorodnichenko · Daniel Murphy

This paper estimates the distributional and social consequences of Department of Defense (DOD) contract spending using a city-level (CBSA) panel dataset spanning 2005–2016. The research question is …

Adrien Auclert · Hannes Malmberg · Frédéric Martenet · Matthew Rognlie

A popular argument — the "asset market meltdown" of the 1990s, revived as the "great demographic reversal" — holds that once the old start running down their savings, aging will push interest rates …

Zhengyang Chen

This 2026 Journal of Macroeconomics paper by Zhengyang Chen asks why high-frequency monetary policy surprises (MPS) -- changes in short-term interest-rate futures measured in narrow windows around …

Andreas Haller · Stefan Staubli · Josef Zweimüller

This paper develops a sufficient statistics framework for the welfare analysis of disability insurance (DI) policy reforms and applies it to two reform episodes in Austria. The framework derives …

Ingrid Huitfeldt · Victoria Marone · Daniel Waldinger

This paper studies the design of dynamic reassignment mechanisms—centralized systems that must not only provide good initial matches but also accommodate changes in agents' preferences over time. The …

Julien Bengui · Louphou Coulibaly

Bengui and Coulibaly ask whether the pattern of capital flows observed during the 2021–2023 global monetary tightening cycle — whereby capital flowed from low-inflation to high-inflation countries — …

John H. Cochrane

Cochrane argues that the standard new-Keynesian account of how a Taylor rule pins down inflation is incomplete -- it works only by assuming the government will follow policies that amount to a threat …

Adrien Auclert · Evan Majic · Matthew Rognlie · Ludwig Straub

Auclert, Majic, Rognlie, and Straub show that the sequence-space Jacobians used to solve macro models with rich heterogeneity have a special "quasi-Toeplitz" mathematical structure, which yields a …

Francesco Ferrante · Nils Gornemann

Ferrante and Gornemann study the aggregate and redistributive effects of currency devaluations in emerging market economies, focusing on a feature that prior open-economy HANK models had not jointly …

Wenxin Du · Alexander Tepper · Adrien Verdelhan

Covered interest rate parity, the no-arbitrage cornerstone of currency forward pricing, is shown to be systematically and persistently violated among G10 currencies after the 2008 crisis, in ways that …

Panle Jia Barwick · Siyu Chen · Chao Fu · Teng Li

This paper estimates the causal effects of mobile app usage on college students' academic performance, physical health, and labor market outcomes, while separately identifying behavioral (endogenous) …

Asger L. Andersen · Kilian Huber · Niels Johannesen · Ludwig Straub · Emil Toft Vestergaard

This paper develops and implements a system of disaggregated economic accounts that breaks down national accounting positions into bilateral flows between small groups of consumers, producers, the …

John B. Taylor

This 1993 Carnegie-Rochester Conference paper by John Taylor introduces what became known as the "Taylor rule" — a simple guideline for setting the federal funds rate, r = p + 0.5y + 0.5(p - 2) + 2, …

James H. Stock · Mark W. Watson

This 2012 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper by James Stock and Mark Watson asks whether the unusual severity of the 2007-09 recession and the weakness of the recovery that followed required …

Andreas Hornstein · Marios Karabarbounis · André Kurmann · Etienne Lalé · Lien Ta

This paper isolates the disincentive effects of pandemic unemployment insurance (UI) benefits on employment recovery, separating them from the simultaneously operating stimulative (demand) effects …

Stephen G. Cecchetti

This 1995 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review paper by Stephen Cecchetti surveys the empirical literature attempting to distinguish two competing theories of how monetary policy affects the real …

Anastasiia Antonova · Gernot J. Müller

This paper asks how governments should optimally adjust sector-specific taxes in response to sectoral shocks when monetary policy cannot be tailored to individual sectors. The authors work within a …

Amory Gethin

This paper constructs the first estimates of the aggregate and distributional effects of worldwide educational expansion since 1980 by developing a "distributional growth accounting" framework that …

El Hadi Caoui · Andrew Steck

This paper investigates how buyer demand for supplier diversification shapes entry incentives and market structure, using the global undersea fiber-optic cable industry as the empirical setting. The …

Raj Chetty · David J Deming · John N Friedman

This paper studies why children from high-income families are more likely to attend Ivy-Plus colleges (Ivy League, Stanford, MIT, Duke, Chicago — 12 colleges total) and whether attending these …

Refet S. Gürkaynak · Brian Sack · Eric T. Swanson

This 2005 International Journal of Central Banking paper by Refet Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson tests whether asset-price responses to FOMC announcements can be adequately characterized by a …

Daniel L. Greenwald · Adam Guren

To what extent did an expansion and contraction of credit drive the 2000s housing boom and bust? The existing literature offers sharply divergent answers — ranging from credit explaining virtually …

Supreet Kaur · Sendhil Mullainathan · Suanna Oh · Frank Schilbach

The paper tests whether financial concerns distract workers sufficiently to meaningfully reduce their productivity, and whether receiving cash — by alleviating those concerns — can raise output even …

Anusha Chari · Peter Blair Henry · Racha Moussa

In a calibrated neo-classical growth model, moving from financial autarky to integration raises consumption most in the first years after opening, so the standard infinite-horizon Hicksian welfare …

Alec Brandon · Paul J Ferraro · John A List · Robert D Metcalfe · Michael K Price · Florian Rundhammer

This paper asks why the Home Energy Report (HER) — a widely deployed social-comparison nudge that shows households how their electricity consumption compares to their neighbors — produces behavioral …

Lee K. Davison · Carlos D. Ramirez

Does deposit insurance promote financial depth by arresting the outflow of deposits from the banking system during periods of bank distress? The paper tests and quantifies the deposit-stabilizing …

Thomas Herndon · M. Ash · Robert Pollin

A critical replication of Reinhart and Rogoff's "Growth in a Time of Debt" using their own working spreadsheet, which identifies three separate problems -- an unexplained exclusion of early post-war …

Hanno Lustig · Adrien Verdelhan

Even the most extreme departure from complete international asset markets -- one in which investors can hold nothing abroad but the foreign risk-free bond -- fails to match the smoothness of exchange …

Michael McLeay · Silvana Tenreyro

An emerging view in international macroeconomics contends that dollar invoicing of exports renders monetary policy ineffective for non-U.S. countries: because export prices are allegedly sticky in …

François R. Velde · Marcelo Veracierto

Written on the eve of Argentina's 2001-02 currency-board collapse, this Chicago Fed policy piece examines Argentina's 1991-99 dollar peg as a test case for the costs and benefits of full …

Christopher A. Sims

Sims argues that fiat government debt is best understood as analogous to privately issued equity rather than to privately issued debt, since it promises only future paper rather than a commodity the …

J. Marcus Fleming

This 1962 IMF Staff Papers article by J. Marcus Fleming compares how effective monetary policy and budgetary (fiscal) policy are at stimulating domestic income and output under fixed versus floating …

Martin Feldstein · Charles Horioka

Across 16 industrial countries whose saving and investment rates are averaged over 1960-74, a one-percentage-point higher ratio of gross domestic saving to GDP comes with roughly nine-tenths of a …

Gita Gopinath · Emine Boz · Camila Casas · Federico J. Díez · Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

Because most trade is invoiced in a few dominant currencies rather than in the producer's or the destination's currency, it is the dollar exchange rate and not the bilateral one that drives import …

José Luis Montiel Olea · Mikkel Plagborg-Møller · Eric Qian · Christian Wolf

This paper provides formal theoretical results on the relative robustness of local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) confidence intervals for impulse response inference when the data …

Jonathon Hazell · Bledi Taska

Hazell and Taska use wages posted on online job vacancies — matched to job titles and establishment identifiers from Burning Glass Technologies — to measure the wage for new hires at the job level …

Timothy Cogley · Thomas J. Sargent

This 2005 Review of Economic Dynamics paper by Timothy Cogley and Thomas J. Sargent extends their earlier Cogley-Sargent (2001) time-varying-parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) of postwar U.S.

Lawrence J. Christiano · Mathias Trabandt · Karl Walentin

This 2011 Handbook of Monetary Economics chapter is a selective survey and original empirical estimation of medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE models for monetary policy analysis. It first works through …

Stephen D. Morris

This 2017 Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control paper by Stephen D. Morris is a methodological contribution explaining why maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimates of DSGE structural parameters often …

Giacomo Lanzani

This paper asks how an agent who fears that none of their probabilistic models is the correct description of the data-generating process (DGP) should update that fear as evidence accumulates, and what …

Matthew Leisten · Nicholas Vreugdenhil

This paper evaluates the efficiency of linked environmental regulation, a targeting mechanism whereby inspectors who discover violations at one plant can increase enforcement pressure on other plants …

Verónica Bäcker-Peral · Jonathon Hazell · Atif Mian

Each month a fraction of UK property leases are extended by 90 years or more, creating thousands of natural experiments in which the same property's rent and capital value are revealed simultaneously. …

Robert E. Lucas Jr.

This 1976 Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series paper by Robert Lucas argues that the standard "theory of economic policy" -- simulating a fixed, estimated econometric model under alternative …

Trevor W. Swan

Trevor Swan's 1956 paper illustrates, with two diagrams, the connexion between capital accumulation and the growth of the productive labour force in a one-sector economy, then devotes a long appendix …

William A. Barnett

This 1980 paper lays out the theoretical foundation for treating monetary aggregates such as M2 as genuine economic quantities and derives the Divisia index as the theoretically correct way to measure …

Cynthia L Doniger

This paper asks how the cyclical sensitivity of wages varies with workers' educational attainment, what mechanisms drive the differences, and what the welfare consequences are of ignoring this …

John Sturm Becko · André Sztutman

Can income tax schedules be justified as utilitarian-optimal without adopting extreme normative assumptions about how household welfare should be measured? The paper proposes a welfare criterion …

Mohammed Abdellaoui · Philippe Colo · Brian Hill

Multiple prior decision models—in which beliefs are represented by a set of probability measures rather than a single measure, generating a probability interval for each event—have become increasingly …